Global counterterrorism efforts are losing ground as nations pivot to great power competition, leaving militant groups, criminal networks, and emerging technologies free to expand their reach, according to a detailed report by The Soufan Center. Analysts warn that the year ahead could see unprecedented levels of terrorist activity, including the integration of drones and artificial intelligence into attacks, a surge in cartel violence in the United States, and a revival of jihadist operations across multiple conflict zones.
Since the September 11 attacks 25 years ago, counterterrorism dominated U.S. and allied security priorities. That focus has shifted in recent years toward geopolitical rivalries, from Ukraine to Venezuela, leaving fewer resources for counterterrorism missions and reducing personnel devoted to monitoring and disrupting extremist operations. The Soufan Center argues that this deprioritization has created openings for jihadist groups like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, whose affiliates are already exploiting fragile states and ungoverned territories.
Africa’s Sahel region is a prime example. There, Al-Qaeda’s Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) continues to expand by embedding itself into local communities, building shadow governance structures, and conducting targeted attacks with little state resistance. Russian mercenaries operating in Mali and surrounding countries have intensified grievances through brutal counterinsurgency tactics, driving more locals to join jihadist groups. Analysts warn that reduced Western engagement in the region will allow these groups to further consolidate power.
Other flashpoints are emerging. In Syria, the Islamic State remains active, and sections of the security forces could defect, joining militants or facilitating attacks. Prisons and detention centers housing extremist fighters remain vulnerable. Yemen continues to be a theater for both Iran-backed Houthis and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, whose propaganda campaigns have grown increasingly bold, even targeting China for Beijing’s policies toward the Uighurs.
South Asia and Afghanistan remain high-risk. Islamic State Khorasan Province continues to plot externally, while al-Qaeda in Afghanistan could seek to rebuild ties with Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent. Pakistan, which experienced its deadliest year in over a decade in 2025, remains vulnerable to militant activity, including attacks with regional consequences, such as the Kashmir incident that nearly triggered conflict with India.
State-sponsored operations are also intensifying. Iran, despite domestic unrest and a weakened economy, is expected to continue using proxy groups to strike at U.S. and Israeli interests abroad. Russia has reportedly recruited third-country extremists and criminals via Telegram to conduct sabotage in Europe, blurring lines between state operations and terrorism.
Domestically, The Soufan Center warns that political violence is increasingly normalized. Non-ideological and single-issue-inspired attacks are rising, with extremists across the political spectrum emboldened by reciprocal radicalization. Far-left groups could target government and immigration enforcement, while far-right actors might escalate violence in response to perceived threats. The upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America is flagged as a potential high-profile target for both ideological and opportunistic attacks.
Criminal networks are also becoming more militant. Following the U.S. designation of several cartels and gangs as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, The Soufan Center predicts possible retaliatory attacks in the United States, targeting law enforcement, infrastructure, and civilians in public spaces such as malls, buses, and concerts. Analysts emphasize that this marks a major shift in domestic counterterrorism, blurring the lines between organized crime and extremist violence.
Technology is accelerating risks. Drones, long used by militant groups in Africa for reconnaissance and propaganda, are now being adapted for attacks. Groups like IS West Africa Province and JNIM are learning from the Ukraine-Russia conflict to weaponize drones while evading countermeasures. Experts warn that 2026 may see these capabilities migrate to Western countries, posing risks to urban gatherings and soft targets.
Convergence of technologies like AI, 3D printing, and commercial drones compounds the threat. AI agents can now produce computer-aided designs for explosives, while chatbots are increasingly integrated into operational planning. Analysts caution that this accessibility allows even small cells to carry out highly lethal attacks with limited resources, creating both tactical and psychological impact.
The Soufan Center’s report underscores a stark reality: terrorism is not a relic of the past two decades—it is evolving faster than the international community can respond. Militant groups, criminal networks, and state-sponsored actors are poised to exploit gaps left by the West’s shift to great power rivalry, combining traditional violence with advanced technologies to expand influence and strike unpredictably.
