Japan cannot afford to stand aside if the United States defends Taiwan in a future conflict with China, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has said, warning that failure to support American forces would fatally undermine the Japan–US alliance. Her comments come amid escalating tensions with Beijing and just weeks before a snap election that she hopes will secure a parliamentary majority.
Speaking during a televised debate with other party leaders, Takaichi sought to clarify remarks she made in November that triggered a sharp backlash from China. While Beijing interpreted her earlier statements as a pledge that Japan would fight alongside the United States if China invaded Taiwan, Takaichi insisted that Japan’s role would be constrained by law and focused primarily on non-combat operations such as evacuating civilians.
“This is not about Japan going out and taking military action when China and the United States clash,” she said. “If something serious happens there, we would have to go to rescue the Japanese and American citizens in Taiwan.” She added that if US forces operating jointly with Japan came under attack and Tokyo failed to respond in any way, the alliance itself would unravel.
The dispute with China began when Takaichi told parliament that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would pose an “existential threat” to Japan. Under Japan’s pacifist postwar constitution, the country is barred from sending troops overseas, but supplementary legislation allows the Self-Defence Forces to take part in collective defense if Japan’s survival is at stake. To Beijing, the language of an existential threat amounted to an implicit threat of military involvement.
Since then, relations between Tokyo and Beijing have chilled sharply. China protested at the United Nations and has applied a series of informal economic and cultural pressures. Imports of Japanese seafood have been halted, exports of rare earth metals restricted, and concerts by Japanese artists cancelled. Beijing has also recalled two giant pandas from a Tokyo zoo, a symbolic move that drew widespread public attention in Japan.
Chinese pressure has extended beyond trade and culture. While China has long disputed Japan’s control of the uninhabited Senkaku Islands, Chinese academics and state media have recently questioned Japan’s authority over Okinawa, a strategically vital prefecture that hosts major US military bases. On Monday, Beijing urged its citizens not to travel to Japan during the Lunar New Year, citing earthquake risks and what it described as Japan’s “unstable security situation.” After an earlier call to boycott Japan in November, the number of Chinese visitors fell by 45 per cent the following month.
China’s ambassador to the United Nations, Fu Cong, issued a blistering condemnation of Takaichi’s stance, accusing her of interfering in China’s internal affairs and violating the postwar international order. He urged Japan to reflect on its history and take concrete steps to address international concerns.
Despite the economic and diplomatic costs, Takaichi’s tough line has resonated with voters at home. Her approval rating has slipped by about 10 percentage points this month but remains high at 57 per cent, surpassing that of any other Japanese politician. On Friday, she called a snap election for February 8, aiming to convert her personal popularity into a majority for the Liberal Democratic Party, which currently governs with the support of a coalition partner.
Analysts say her remarks were carefully calculated rather than accidental. Takao Toshikawa, publisher of the political newsletter Insideline, said Takaichi understood the implications of her words from the outset and deliberately chose to articulate a view long held within the LDP but rarely stated so explicitly by a sitting prime minister.
Even as tensions remain high, Takaichi has signaled openness to dialogue. She said she would consider meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping to ensure Beijing properly understands Japan’s position, suggesting that even as Tokyo reinforces its security alignment with Washington, it is still seeking a way to stabilize relations with its powerful neighbor.
