Two weeks into the war in the Persian Gulf, the conflict has evolved into a starkly asymmetric struggle. On one side stand the overwhelming conventional military forces of the United States and Israel, which have carried out thousands of airstrikes across Iran. On the other is Tehran, pursuing a guerrilla-style strategy aimed not at matching military power directly but at crippling global energy flows and destabilizing the international economy.
American and Israeli forces rapidly seized control of Iranian airspace early in the conflict, launching a massive air campaign that targeted the country’s military infrastructure and leadership. The strikes have significantly weakened Iran’s navy, degraded its missile-launch capabilities, and dismantled much of its air-defense network. Analysts say these operations have also pushed Iran’s already battered nuclear weapons program further away from producing a viable bomb.
Yet history suggests that superior military power does not always guarantee a decisive victory. Even the most advanced armed forces have struggled against adversaries willing to sustain heavy losses and adapt their tactics. Iran appears to be relying on this strategy of endurance and economic disruption rather than direct confrontation.
Tehran has focused its efforts on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow but strategically vital waterway through which a large share of the world’s oil and natural gas shipments pass. By using relatively inexpensive and widely available weapons—including drones, sea mines, small attack boats, and short-range rockets—Iran has managed to disrupt maritime traffic through the strait. Iranian forces have reportedly attacked at least 16 commercial vessels since the start of the war, helping push global oil prices above $100 per barrel and raising fears of long-term supply disruptions.
The geography of the strait makes it particularly vulnerable to such tactics. At its narrowest point, the channel is only about 21 miles wide, making ships easy targets for mobile missile systems and fast-moving attack craft. Iranian forces have relied heavily on what analysts describe as a “mosquito fleet” of small boats capable of launching quick hit-and-run attacks before retreating. Combined with mobile anti-ship missile launchers along the coastline, these tactics allow Iran to threaten shipping without exposing its forces to direct large-scale retaliation.
For many shipping companies and mariners, the risk has become too great. Several commercial carriers have chosen to avoid the route altogether, fearing potential losses or casualties. The resulting disruptions have begun to ripple through global energy markets and supply chains, raising concerns about inflation and economic instability in countries far from the battlefield.
The challenge now facing Washington is whether it can restore safe passage through the strait. U.S. President Donald Trump recently said that American forces had struck military targets on Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export terminal, in an attempt to pressure Tehran into reopening the waterway. He also expressed hope that other countries would deploy naval vessels to help secure the strait and support international shipping.
Trump has indicated that the U.S. Navy may soon begin escorting oil tankers through the waterway, a strategy similar to operations carried out during the so-called Tanker Wars of the 1980s. However, American naval commanders have expressed concern about sending warships into the confined waters of the strait, warning that Iranian drones and anti-ship missiles could turn the area into a dangerous “kill box” for sailors.
The Pentagon has begun reinforcing its presence in the region, deploying additional Marine units capable of conducting amphibious assaults, air operations, and special missions. At the same time, U.S. air power continues to target Iranian military positions along the coastline in an effort to weaken Tehran’s ability to threaten shipping.
For Iran, the confrontation is widely viewed as an existential struggle against a long-feared American attack. Tehran has spent decades preparing for such a scenario and shows little indication of backing down despite heavy losses. Retired U.S. Navy Admiral James Stavridis warned that wars rarely end simply because one side declares victory. Even if public attention in the United States fades, he said, the conflict itself may continue to escalate.
While the military campaign has achieved some strategic objectives—particularly the weakening of Iran’s missile arsenal and nuclear program—it has also produced unintended geopolitical consequences. In an effort to stabilize oil markets, the Trump administration has pushed for the release of international strategic petroleum reserves and eased restrictions on Russian crude exports. Analysts say this could provide additional revenue to Russian President Vladimir Putin as his country continues its war in Ukraine.
The conflict is also being closely watched by other global powers. China’s political and military leadership is observing how the United States deploys its weapons and strategies, potentially gaining insights into the capabilities and limitations of its primary strategic rival.
Meanwhile, Iran’s network of regional allies remains active. In Lebanon, the militant group Hezbollah launched about 200 rockets into Israel this week, demonstrating Tehran’s ability to project influence and sustain pressure even as it faces heavy bombardment at home.
Rising energy prices and the potential for a prolonged conflict are also beginning to affect domestic politics in the United States. With midterm elections approaching, administration officials are increasingly concerned about the impact of higher fuel costs and economic uncertainty on voters. Public opinion polls suggest that many Americans are wary of becoming entangled in another extended war in the Middle East.
The broader international community may play a crucial role in determining whether shipping lanes can be secured. Protecting vessels from mines and missile attacks would likely require cooperation from European and other allied navies. Retired U.S. Army Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt noted that several European countries possess specialized mine-clearing ships that could help reopen the strait.
However, some allies may hesitate to join a U.S.-led coalition in a conflict they only partially support. As during the tanker protection missions of the 1980s, countries might instead deploy their naval forces independently while pursuing the shared goal of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open to global commerce.
