Three weeks into the escalating Middle East war, the Iranian regime is boldly signaling that it believes it is winning, asserting the ability to dictate terms to United States and shape the region’s energy landscape for decades. Tehran’s leaders portray themselves as not only surviving U.S. and Israeli strikes but increasingly capable of inflicting severe disruption across the Gulf, all while sustaining their own oil exports. Iranian confidence is rooted in control over the Strait of Hormuz and the growing reach of its missile and drone forces, though analysts warn that this self-assurance may dangerously underestimate U.S. and Israel resolve.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faster than people think,” while Trump suggested a near-term resolution even as thousands of Marines were deployed to the region. Tehran appears to interpret the uncertainty as a strategic opening, amplifying its perception of victory.
Far from being weakened, Iran’s military operations have intensified. In recent days, Tehran launched dozens of ballistic missiles and drones targeting energy infrastructure in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates. At the same time, Iranian oil exports continue unabated, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains entirely under Tehran’s control. The Strait carries nearly one-third of the world’s shipborne crude, giving Iran leverage over global energy markets that is reflected in soaring oil and gas prices.
Iranian officials have made clear that any cease-fire would require massive concessions, including reparations, U.S. troop withdrawals, and formal recognition of Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesman for Iran’s parliamentary foreign affairs and defense committee, emphasized that talks with Washington are off the table, framing Iran’s offensive as punishment for “aggressors.” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.S., Gulf states, or major energy consumers including China, India, and Japan. President Trump has vowed to reopen the strait, describing military operations as “a simple maneuver” despite the threats posed by Iranian drones and portable antiship missiles. Military experts caution that while U.S. intelligence and targeting could eventually restore shipping lanes, Iran’s current tactical advantage underscores why the regime believes it is winning.
Analysts note that Tehran’s confidence may strengthen domestic legitimacy. Nicole Grajewski of Sciences Po observed that the regime could frame this conflict as a new Iran-Iraq war, reinforcing militarism and a narrative of survival against U.S. and Israeli pressure. Yet the regime faces internal vulnerabilities, including public dissent and the memory of recent protests suppressed violently in January.
The perception of Iranian victory is also a high-stakes gamble. While Tehran currently controls strategic chokepoints and has inflicted significant economic and psychological pressure, the ultimate balance of power remains uncertain. Observers warn that the regime’s self-perceived dominance may provoke forceful U.S. or Israeli retaliation, especially if energy flows or regional stability are threatened. Robin Mills of Qamar Energy noted that any temporary U.S. acquiescence would likely be short-lived, prompting renewed military action.
