The Middle East is hurtling toward an even more dangerous stage in the ongoing war between Iran, the United States, and Israel. After nearly three weeks, what began as a U.S.-Israel military campaign against Tehran has spread across the region, drawing in most Gulf states, Iraq, and Lebanon. Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance” has already mobilized key partners, including Lebanese Hezbollah and Iran-aligned militias in Iraq, escalating pressure on Washington. Yet one potential actor—the Houthis in Yemen, known formally as Ansarallah—has held back, creating a delicate balance that experts say could shift dramatically if they decide to join the fight.
The Houthis, who control much of central and northern Yemen including the capital Sanaa, remain arguably the least damaged member of the Axis coalition after years of U.S. and Israeli action. Unlike Hezbollah in Lebanon or Iraqi militias, the Houthis face no domestic central government with the capacity to challenge their control. Their geographic advantage is significant: Yemen’s western coast along the Red Sea and the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait places them astride one of the most critical chokepoints in global commerce and energy flows, second only to the Strait of Hormuz. This positioning has drawn the attention of both Tehran and regional analysts, who view the Houthis as potentially pivotal in amplifying Iran’s asymmetric warfare strategy.
Despite their strategic potential, the Houthis have so far been restrained from entering the war, largely due to practical and political concerns. The U.S. and Israel could retaliate against key Houthi infrastructure, particularly the port of Hodeidah, a vital supply route and revenue source. Weapon resupply from Iran has also been complicated, with Tehran prioritizing its own war effort. Nevertheless, indications of a potential Houthi entry are mounting. Five days into the Iran war, the Houthis’ paramount leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, announced that his forces were “ready to respond at any moment should developments warrant it.” Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, hinted at the possibility of “new fronts in the conflict,” a signal that Tehran is pressing the Houthis to act.
Regional analysts argue that Houthi involvement would represent a serious escalation. The group could serve as a force multiplier for Tehran, targeting oil tankers in the Red Sea to disrupt global shipping and energy flows while forcing U.S. and Israeli air forces to divert resources from strikes on Iran. The Soufan Center, an independent intelligence and security analysis group, notes that Houthi attacks could revive patterns observed following the October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, when the group targeted more than 100 commercial vessels, temporarily rerouting over 60 percent of maritime traffic. Analysts warn that such disruptions would place upward pressure on global oil prices and further destabilize regional energy markets.
The Houthis’ combat experience makes them a credible threat. During the Israel-Hamas war, they demonstrated the ability to launch missiles and drones capable of reaching Israel, though most were intercepted or failed to hit intended targets. Renewed attacks could be aimed at Israeli territory or Saudi Arabia, particularly if Riyadh actively joins strikes against Iranian positions. However, most experts believe that the Houthis would only target Saudi Arabia defensively, in response to direct actions against Iran. Saudi Arabia’s internal divisions, highlighted by clashes in southern Yemen between UAE-backed and Saudi-backed militias in December, further complicate the likelihood of direct confrontation.
Yet practical constraints remain a powerful deterrent. The Houthis’ arsenal was significantly depleted during Operation Rough Rider, the U.S. six-week air campaign in 2025, and weapons flow from Tehran has slowed as Iran faces its own wartime demands. The U.S. has reportedly warned Houthi leaders via Omani intermediaries against entering the conflict, and surveillance by U.S. and Israeli intelligence has kept key figures in hiding. Previous Israeli decapitation strikes in August 2025, which killed numerous members of the Houthi governing body, underscore the high stakes of direct involvement.
Internal Houthi strategy also tempers the group’s willingness to act. Unlike other Axis partners, the Houthis have maintained a degree of independence from Iran, carefully weighing ideological alignment against pragmatic survival. The Soufan Center observes that while the Houthis share Tehran’s resistance against Israel and the U.S., their leadership must calculate long-term interests, including preservation of territory, revenue streams, and strategic influence within Yemen. Analysts also speculate that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps may be actively discouraging the Houthis from engagement, viewing the group as an essential ally for post-war scenarios in Yemen or even Somalia.
Nevertheless, the probability of Houthi intervention appears to increase as the war drags on. Nadwa Al-Dawsari of the Middle East Institute suggests that a prolonged conflict would make Houthi participation more likely, amplifying Tehran’s asymmetric strategies while creating additional fronts that could strain U.S. and Israeli military logistics. Such a move could extend Iran’s influence in Yemen, disrupt global shipping lanes, and place further pressure on energy markets already rattled by regional instability.
As the Houthis weigh their options, the global implications are clear. Entry into the conflict would not only escalate violence in Yemen but could also create cascading effects across the Red Sea, the Gulf, and beyond. Energy markets, commercial shipping, and regional security are all vulnerable to disruption, highlighting the delicate balance in a war that has already expanded far beyond Iran’s borders. For now, the Houthis remain a formidable potential actor, their decisions poised to reshape the trajectory of a conflict that threatens to engulf much of the Middle East.
