According to five people familiar with U.S. intelligence, the United States can confirm that roughly one-third of Iran’s missile stockpile has been destroyed as the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign nears its one-month mark, Reuters reports. Another third of the missiles is believed to have been damaged, buried, or rendered inaccessible in underground bunkers and tunnels, leaving their exact status uncertain. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the information. Similar assessments apply to Iran’s drone capabilities, with one source noting that about a third have been destroyed with some confidence.
The intelligence findings suggest that while a majority of Iran’s missiles are either destroyed or inaccessible, Tehran still retains a substantial arsenal that could potentially be recovered after hostilities end. This assessment contrasts with public remarks from President Donald Trump claiming Iran has “very few rockets left” and acknowledging the potential threat from remaining Iranian weapons to future U.S. operations in the economically strategic Strait of Hormuz. A Pentagon official told Reuters that Iranian missile and drone attacks have dropped about 90 percent since the start of the conflict, with over 66 percent of Iran’s missile, drone, and naval production facilities targeted.
Despite these losses, Iran has continued offensive operations, firing ballistic missiles and drones at the United Arab Emirates, and demonstrating new long-range capabilities, including strikes on the U.S.-UK base Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. Experts caution that U.S. claims of success may overstate the degradation of Iran’s forces. Nicole Grajewski, a missile expert at Paris’ Sciences Po university, noted that Iran’s extensive underground facilities have allowed it to sustain attacks, with an estimated 30 percent of its missile capabilities likely remaining intact.
Israeli officials report that 70 percent of Iran’s missile launchers have been neutralized, though they do not publicly disclose the remaining missile inventory. U.S. officials similarly acknowledge the difficulty in assessing the exact size of Iran’s pre-war stockpiles due to underground storage and extensive tunneling networks. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth highlighted the challenge of tracking missiles hidden in tunnels, comparing them to Hamas networks in Gaza, while asserting that U.S. forces are pursuing targets “methodically, ruthlessly and overwhelmingly.”
The ongoing conflict underscores both the limits of U.S. intelligence in evaluating Iran’s defenses and the persistent risk posed by the country’s remaining missile and drone capabilities, raising stakes for any potential escalation along the Strait of Hormuz.
