Following a dramatic purge of top generals, Xi is now overseeing the five-yearly reshuffle of party and state positions, affecting hundreds of thousands of jobs across China. The process begins at the grassroots level, with elections in villages and urban neighborhoods, and extends upward to municipal, provincial, and ministerial posts. While these local contests involve citizens, the results are largely predetermined, ensuring that local party bosses maintain control. Decisions for higher-level leadership are made in secret by current officials and rubber-stamped by party committees, leaving little room for independent voices. Over the coming two years, key provincial and municipal appointments will determine future Politburo candidates, with Xi loyalists overwhelmingly favored.
Xi’s own positions are effectively secure. He is all but certain to be renewed as party general secretary and commander-in-chief of the armed forces after the 21st congress, with his largely ceremonial role as president also continuing until 2028. Yet succession questions remain unresolved. Xi, now in his late 60s, shows no intention of preparing a clear heir, signaling a possible extension of his rule beyond 2032. The composition of China’s top bodies reflects this: the youngest member of the Politburo Standing Committee is 63, and the median age of the full Politburo is 66, the highest this century. The Central Committee and provincial leadership have similarly aged, indicating a leadership turning increasingly gerontocratic.
Purges since the 20th congress in 2022 have eliminated both Xi’s rivals and his protégés, leaving few untainted officials to fill senior positions. According to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, 37 of 44 officers appointed to the Central Committee in 2022 have been expelled, gone missing, or are under investigation. The Central Military Commission, normally populated by uniformed officers, remains dominated by Xi as the sole civilian, signaling his intent to retain ultimate control over the military. Analysts note that the absence of younger leaders in the Politburo and top provincial posts limits any potential challenges to his authority and underscores his preference for loyal, older allies.
Xi’s reforms of party rules reinforce his grip. The abolition of presidential term limits in 2018 removed institutional constraints on his rule, and he has consistently avoided promoting younger leaders who could emerge as potential successors. Gavekal Dragonomics highlights that the leadership pipeline is increasingly devoid of younger talent: Central Committee members in their 30s and 40s are nearly absent, and the median age of new appointments has steadily risen. This strategy minimizes internal competition but risks stagnation and internal tension among aging elites.
Despite appearances of stability, the next five-year term is expected to involve intense behind-the-scenes politicking. Purges, corruption probes, and loyalty tests are likely to continue as Xi consolidates power and navigates factional rivalries. Jonathan Czin, a former CIA analyst, predicts that Xi’s next term will be “increasingly tumultuous,” as the combination of loyalists, aging officials, and lack of clear successors creates a tense and unpredictable political environment. The Economist emphasizes that while Xi appears firmly in control, China’s elite remains on edge, and internal party dynamics could shape the country’s political trajectory well into the next decade.
