The balance of power in Iran is undergoing a profound transformation as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps consolidates its control over the country’s political and military apparatus, according to reporting by El País. Once operating behind a façade of institutional governance designed to project democratic legitimacy, the Revolutionary Guard—also known as the Pasdaran—has now emerged as the central force directing the country’s strategy in its ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel.
Prior to the recent 12-day war with Israel, in which key elements of Tehran’s nuclear program were targeted, the influence of the Revolutionary Guard remained largely obscured within Iran’s complex governance system. However, as the conflict escalated, that veil has lifted. The military elite not only directs wartime operations but increasingly dominates civilian institutions, signaling a decisive shift toward hardline rule that has been decades in the making.
Initial expectations among some analysts suggested that sustained strikes on Iran’s military and security infrastructure could quickly destabilize the government. Yet experts familiar with Iran’s layered power structure warned such predictions underestimated the system’s resilience. Four weeks into the war, Iran’s military capabilities have been weakened, but the country retains the ability to threaten U.S. interests, disrupt maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, and influence global energy markets. At the same time, the toll on Iran’s political and military leadership has been significant, exposing fractures and rivalries within the ruling elite.
The Revolutionary Guard has moved swiftly to fill leadership gaps created by targeted attacks, replacing fallen commanders and expanding its reach into positions traditionally held by civilians. The death of key figures has accelerated this transition, allowing military officials to assume greater authority within the state. This restructuring has further entrenched the Guard’s dominance and laid the groundwork for a broader reconfiguration of power within the Islamic Republic.
A pivotal moment came with the rise of Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader following the death of his father, Ali Khamenei. His appointment, described by some critics as a “coup” by the Revolutionary Guard, underscores the extent to which military networks now shape leadership transitions. Central to this shift is the so-called Habib Circle, an influential network led by cleric and former intelligence chief Hossein Taeb, which played a key role in consolidating Mojtaba’s position.
At the same time, other power networks have reemerged, including the Mansourun Circle, a group with roots in pre-revolutionary armed struggle against the monarchy. Figures such as Mohsen Rezaei and Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr have gained prominence within this evolving landscape, occupying senior advisory and security roles. These developments highlight the competition among hardline factions vying for influence within the regime.
Amid these shifts, the authority of President Masoud Pezeshkian has visibly diminished. Analysts describe his role as increasingly ceremonial, limited to formalizing decisions made by more powerful actors within the security establishment. Even public questioning of the expanding influence of figures like Taeb has been swiftly silenced, reflecting a tightening political environment and reduced tolerance for dissent within elite circles.
Another key figure in this power matrix is Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, whose background in the Revolutionary Guard and current position as parliamentary speaker place him at the intersection of military, security, and administrative authority. His influence is reinforced by a network of commanders who previously served under him, strengthening his position within the broader apparatus. However, his dominance is not uncontested, with figures such as Ahmad Vahidi—himself a senior military leader—representing potential alternative centers of power.
Experts caution that no single leader has yet emerged as the undisputed authority within Iran’s evolving system. Instead, power appears increasingly fragmented among competing factions within the Revolutionary Guard and its affiliated networks. This decentralized structure, while complex, has also contributed to the regime’s resilience, allowing it to adapt quickly to external pressures and internal disruptions.
The growing dominance of the Revolutionary Guard is not solely a product of the current war. Analysts point to a long historical process in which the regime systematically strengthened military control over political, economic, and security institutions. This strategy was shaped by past conflicts, including confrontations with the United States and regional wars, as well as by decades of international sanctions that limited economic competition and expanded the Guard’s role in key industries.
Over time, the presidency has been steadily weakened, particularly following the suppression of protests in 2009 and the consolidation of hardline authority under leaders aligned with the Revolutionary Guard. Scholars such as Luciano Zaccara note that while the president retains some influence over day-to-day governance, critical areas such as security and intelligence remain firmly outside civilian control. In the current conflict, military strategy appears to be driven almost entirely by the Revolutionary Guard, with minimal coordination with the executive branch.
The role of the clergy and even the Supreme Leader has also come into question. Observers suggest that Mojtaba Khamenei’s authority may be limited, with real decision-making power residing within military networks. Whether he acts as a final arbiter or merely as a symbolic figure remains unclear, further underscoring the transformation underway in Iran’s political system.
As the conflict continues, the consolidation of power by the Revolutionary Guard is likely to have lasting implications, both domestically and internationally. The strengthening of military control could lead to increased repression at home and a more assertive posture abroad, reshaping Iran’s role on the global stage. What is clear is that the war has accelerated a transformation that has been years in the making, bringing the true center of power in Iran into full view.
