A war involving Iran is now reverberating far beyond the Middle East, exposing the fragile foundations of the modern global food system and raising the prospect of a widespread hunger crisis. Reporting highlighted by the Financial Times underscores how quickly geopolitical conflict is translating into rising food and fertiliser prices, with consequences that are already being felt across vulnerable regions in Africa and Asia. What was once considered a relatively contained energy shock is now evolving into a broader agricultural emergency.
At the heart of the problem lies the legacy of the Green Revolution, the 20th-century transformation that dramatically increased global crop yields through high-yielding seeds, irrigation and synthetic fertilisers. While it helped avert famine in many parts of the world, it also bound global food production tightly to fossil fuels. Modern agriculture now depends heavily on nitrogen-based fertilisers such as urea and ammonia, which are derived from natural gas. This means that any disruption in energy markets quickly cascades into food systems. As oil and gas prices have surged in the wake of the war on Iran, fertiliser costs have followed sharply upward, creating a direct transmission mechanism from conflict to hunger.
Recent data illustrates the scale of this shock. The World Bank has recorded a 41.6 per cent rise in its energy price index, driven by sharp increases in both European natural gas and crude oil. In parallel, fertiliser prices have risen by more than 26 per cent, while food prices have also begun to climb. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization has warned that if instability persists, global fertiliser prices could remain significantly elevated into 2026. The Financial Times has noted that even short-term disruptions are now sufficient to destabilise agricultural planning cycles in many importing countries, particularly those already facing debt pressure and climate stress.
Unlike previous crises in 2007-08 or 2022, the current shock is being amplified by the deep integration of Gulf economies into global food supply chains. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have moved beyond their traditional role as energy exporters to become central players in fertiliser production, chemical feedstocks and agricultural logistics. Large state-owned firms have used hydrocarbon revenues to expand into ammonia and nitrogen fertiliser production, turning natural gas into a critical input for global food security. Today, nearly 30 per cent of global ammonia exports originate in the Middle East, while Gulf countries dominate trade in key fertiliser products such as urea, monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate.
This concentration of supply means that any disruption in the Gulf has immediate global consequences. Ammonia, which is essential for fertiliser production, is heavily exported from the region, with countries such as Saudi Arabia among the world’s largest suppliers. Sulphur, another key input used in phosphate fertiliser production, also flows largely through Gulf-controlled maritime routes. Roughly half of global seaborne sulphur passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint now exposed to geopolitical risk. In effect, modern agriculture in regions as far apart as South Asia and North Africa is structurally dependent on the stability of a single, conflict-prone corridor.
At the same time, the Gulf has become a central hub for global food logistics. The United Arab Emirates, in particular, now functions as a major re-export centre for grain and staple foods, connecting producers in Europe and Asia with consumers across Africa and the Middle East. Infrastructure such as Dubai’s Jebel Ali Port, operated by DP World, handles massive volumes of global trade and serves as a key redistribution point for food supplies. According to US Department of Agriculture assessments referenced in the Financial Times, the UAE has become one of the world’s top re-export hubs, while a significant share of global trade between Europe, Africa and Asia passes through Emirati logistical networks.
This infrastructure also plays a dual role, supporting both commercial and humanitarian supply chains. Food aid shipments destined for conflict zones frequently transit through Gulf ports before reaching destinations such as Sudan or Somalia. Yet this concentration of logistics also creates systemic vulnerability. Any disruption to shipping routes, insurance costs or port operations can rapidly cascade through global supply chains, increasing both food prices and delivery delays.
The consequences are most severe in the global south, where governments lack fiscal space to cushion the impact of rising costs. Countries such as Sudan, Somalia, Sri Lanka and Tanzania are highly exposed to fertiliser imports from the Gulf and have limited capacity to subsidise farmers or absorb price shocks. In Sudan, where famine conditions already exist amid ongoing civil conflict, nearly half the population faces acute food insecurity. Sri Lanka, still recovering from economic crisis, risks renewed inflationary pressure if fertiliser costs remain elevated. The World Food Programme has estimated that tens of millions of additional people could be pushed into acute hunger as a result of the war-driven food shock.
Compounding the crisis is a broader debt emergency across developing economies. Rising energy and food prices are driving inflation, weakening currencies and increasing borrowing costs. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, developing countries paid nearly a trillion dollars in debt interest in 2024 alone, diverting scarce resources away from food subsidies, healthcare and education. As capital flows retreat to safer assets, financial conditions are tightening further just as external shocks intensify.
The scale of this convergence of risks suggests that the global food system is entering a period of sustained stress rather than a temporary shock. As highlighted in Financial Times reporting on the issue, the war in Iran has exposed how deeply interconnected energy, fertiliser and food markets have become. It has also revealed the extent to which geopolitical instability in one region can propagate through global supply chains with devastating humanitarian consequences.
Addressing this crisis will require more than short-term price stabilisation. Experts increasingly argue for structural changes to reduce dependence on fossil-fuel-based agriculture, including diversified fertiliser production, improved soil management and more resilient farming practices. In the immediate term, however, the priority remains preventing a surge in hunger. Expanded humanitarian aid, emergency financing and debt relief for vulnerable countries are seen as essential steps to prevent a worsening global food emergency.
Without such measures, the current trajectory points toward a prolonged period of food insecurity affecting billions. What began as a regional conflict is now shaping up to be a global food system shock, with consequences that could persist long after the fighting ends.
