Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) leader Chandrasekar Joseph Vijay has achieved his chief ministerial dream in Tamil Nadu, with the help of some other parties, including the Congress. His meteoric rise to power was possible mostly due to his popularity as a film star, his unrealistic promises and a massive protest vote fuelled by anti-politics. Winning elections is one thing, but living up to people’s expectations by fulfilling campaign promises is quite another. In politics, a beginner’s luck rarely lasts long. If implemented, the freebies promised by Vijay to garner favour with voters, are estimated to account for more than 50% of Tamil Nadu’s tax revenue. Thus, Vijay has his work cut out to prevent his first chief ministerial term from facing the same fate as his first film, which reportedly became a box office bomb.
The paradigm shift in Tamil Nadu politics has sent the Colombo commentariat into overdrive, with divergent assessments of its implications for Sri Lanka and Indo-Lanka relations. Some commentators are of the view that Vijay’s anti-Sri Lanka utterances were mere campaign rhetoric; Vijay himself will forget them with the passage of time, and even if he wants to pursue his pledges, especially the one to retrieve Katchatheevu, there will be nothing he cannot do, as New Delhi considers the issue long settled. The proponents of this argument have apparently ignored the fact that the Indian Centre is swayed by Tamil Nadu, and New Delhi has even resorted to extreme measures to appease the Tamil Nadu politicians and further its own interests at the expense of Sri Lanka. India trained, armed and funded pro-Eelam terror groups, and rammed the Indo-Lanka Accord down President J. R. Jayewardene’s throat in 1987, paving the way of devolution. India was hoist with its own petard, with the LTTE turning against it, a few years later, and the situation changed.
The current world order is anything but “rules based”. International pacts, accords, covenants, treaties, charters, etc., become worthless when the powerful signatories thereto feel like violating them. The US has violated the UN Charter, perhaps for the umpteenth time, by abducting President of Venezuela Nicolás Maduro and his wife. It has also carried out unprovoked air strikes on Iran, killing its Spiritual Leader and thousands of civilians besides destroying assets worth billions, if not trillions, of dollars.
It has been alleged that at the height of the 2022 uprising here, following the forced resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Indian High Commissioner Gopal Baglay pressured Speaker Mahinda Yapa Abeywardene to take over the presidency in violation of the Constitution. Abeywardene told Parliament subsequently that the goal of those who tried to force him to appoint himself the Acting President was to plunge this country into anarchy. Baglay allegedly acted in violation of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, which requires diplomats to refrain from interfering with the internal affairs or politics of the host countries. Curiously, this very serious allegation remains unprobed though the grandees of the JVP-NPP government and the SJB-led Opposition wrap themselves in the flag and often declare their commitment to protecting the national interest.
The possibility of the new Tamil Nadu administration escalating the issue of illegal fishing in Sri Lankan waters to such an extent that New Delhi may feel compelled to intervene more assertively, if not aggressively, cannot be ruled out. In 2013, the then Minister of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources Development Dr. Rajitha Senaratne disclosed that certain Tamil Nadu politicians owned trawlers and rented them out on the strict condition that they be used for poaching in Sri Lankan waters. These troublemakers are likely to step up their illegal fishing operations to belittle Sri Lanka’s sovereignty and bring New Delhi and Colombo on a collision course.
Responses to vital bilateral issues should not be grounded solely in suspicions and perceptions if they are to be workable. Tamil Nadu politicians’ hostility towards Sri Lanka is a problem to be managed diplomatically. Foreign relations are layered and dynamic, and diplomacy requires calibrated responses to contentious issues. It is, however, prudent to be cautious.
