How do we understand the process taking place in a context where Sri Lankan media has produced the widest gap between the middle class and reality?
What is the global geopolitical crisis we have been experiencing since 2000? Since then, China has shifted toward a form of 19th-century industrial capitalism, and its infrastructure has come to rely heavily on coal, concrete, petrochemicals, and carbon emissions. The idea that China has become the world’s factory reflects the fact that it has adopted a production model that Europe largely abandoned in the late 19th century.
It is against this historical backdrop that the Belt and Road Initiative was later inaugurated. As a result, even a small country like Sri Lanka has undergone major transformation.
According to the logic of Chinese industrial capitalism, the seas around Sri Lanka were to be opened up for trade. As a consequence, the CCP provided Sri Lanka with the financial and military support needed to completely defeat the LTTE. As a result, the Rajapaksa family was anointed as heroes, and the entire Sri Lankan state apparatus became increasingly corrupt.
In the final analysis, what China wanted and what Sri Lanka wanted did not fully materialize, and ethnic nationalism became the dominant force. Even today, we have no escape from this historical crossroads.
However, China has not been able to move forward cleanly into the 21st century and has faced environmental constraints similar to those Europe faced in the 19th century. For this reason, China has begun to transform its state structure from a petrochemical state (a “petro state”) to an electro-state within 2029–2030. As a side effect, the United States, which depends on a petrodollar economy, has begun to face internal crises. The Middle East crisis and the Iran conflict are often interpreted as external manifestations of this global restructuring centered on China. This has affected the world in various ways, including global supply chain disruptions.
As China becomes electrified, other countries are being forced to develop capabilities in batteries, EVs, and power grids. As a country that imports 100% of its oil, gas, and coal, Sri Lanka’s state expenditure has increased under this global restructuring. The Sri Lankan state should therefore move toward electrification and identify sustainable and profitable sources of electricity generation. In simple terms, the state should quickly reduce inefficiencies in the civil service and reconsider public–private arrangements in sectors such as education and health. In addition, it should turn to India for cheaper electricity.
The main crisis China faces in pursuing electrification is the apolitical bureaucratic structure in which the state is organized. Therefore, China cannot limit itself to restructuring markets and upgrading technology; it must also move toward greater political openness in its next phase. The linear logic of 19th-century industrial capitalism is no longer sufficient for the 21st century. Throughout the 20th century, political reform in China was often associated with violence. Today, China must move beyond apoliticism. It should be understood that China remains apolitical even after the Fukuyama–Tiananmen historical moment.
What is happening in Sri Lanka today is the elimination of politics from a centrist position, leaving the left and the market as two opposing extremes.
In this context, Anura Kumara Dissanayake seeks to end the apoliticism and bureaucracy practiced by his party. On the other hand, Ranil Wickremesinghe is attempting to build a UNP that accommodates nationalism and Buddhism as a state ideology, drawing in figures such as Namal Rajapaksa, Dilith Jayaweera, and Wimal Weerawansa. As a result, both sides appear to depend on each other. That is why party politics has been weakened, with anti-racist ideology increasingly being delegated to YouTubers.
On the other hand, Wickremesinghe is weakening the SJB by allowing nationalism and religion to seep into the opposition space. The question remains: how wise is it to engage politically with racist forces?
