China has accumulated more than 30 days’ worth of coal supplies to ensure power stability ahead of an expected summer electricity crunch linked to the El Niño climate pattern. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), which manages China’s economic planning, confirmed that coal inventories at power plants have reached around 200 million metric tons, a level officials say is sufficient to sustain at least one month of electricity generation under peak conditions.
The buildup comes as meteorological forecasts suggest that El Niño is likely to intensify this summer, pushing global temperatures higher and increasing cooling demand across China. Authorities estimate that peak electricity consumption could rise by about 5% compared with the previous year, equivalent to roughly 90 gigawatts of additional demand—comparable to the entire power usage of Henan province, one of the country’s most populous regions.
In addition to coal reserves, officials highlighted the role of hydropower in stabilizing the grid, noting that water storage at hydroelectric facilities currently stands at more than 80,000 gigawatt-hours. This level is described as consistent with historical averages and is expected to support electricity supply during periods of peak stress. China has also added approximately 100 gigawatts of new power generation capacity in the first four months of the year, strengthening its overall energy buffer.
Despite these measures, concerns remain over rising energy consumption and tightening fuel markets. Electricity usage between January and April increased by 5.4% year-on-year, while coal production remained largely flat. At the same time, fossil fuel prices have been climbing, with business-to-business coal and oil prices rising by 14% in April, according to producer price data. Analysts warn that continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could further push up coal costs and eventually affect household electricity bills.
The NDRC has stated that regional power-sharing mechanisms will be activated if needed during emergencies, allowing electricity to be redistributed across provinces to prevent localized shortages. Officials have expressed confidence that current supply conditions will be sufficient to meet peak summer demand, despite the combined pressures of climate-driven consumption spikes and volatile global energy markets.
