The planned signing of a formal agreement between the United States and Iran to confirm a ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz was delayed Friday after a new Israeli offensive in Lebanon disrupted the schedule. Despite the absence of a finalized document, energy markets and maritime authorities are increasingly treating the reopening of the strategic waterway as a certainty, triggering the first steps toward restoring oil shipments from the Persian Gulf.
Maritime security authorities have declared the Strait of Hormuz open and lowered the regional risk level to moderate, while confirming that passage through Omani waters is considered safe. The decision allows shipping companies and insurers to begin evaluating a broader return to operations after more than three months of disruption.
Iran also announced Friday that it would not impose transit fees on vessels crossing the strait for 60 days, matching the timeframe of ongoing negotiations with Washington over a final agreement. The move came as the oil and shipping industries began preparing for a gradual return to normal activity, following a 15% decline in crude prices over two weeks that reflected market expectations of renewed supply flows.
Shipping activity has already increased in the region following the preliminary U.S.-Iran agreement announced the previous Sunday. According to maritime analysis firm Winward, 871 cargo vessels and tankers were detected across the Persian Gulf on Wednesday, 202 more than the previous day. Data from Vortexa compiled by Bloomberg showed that 40 supertankers carrying nearly 80 million barrels of oil were positioned in the area, waiting for conditions to allow passage through Hormuz.
The next decision rests largely with shipping operators and insurance providers, which must determine whether security conditions are sufficient to resume large-scale movement. Although initial activity has increased, industry analysts do not expect a complete recovery for several months unless diplomatic negotiations deteriorate.
Signals of renewed operations have also emerged from the center of Gulf oil production. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc), the United Arab Emirates’ state-owned energy company, has informed customers that crude loading can resume from ports on Das and Zirku islands in the Persian Gulf, according to Bloomberg. The company said it could provide ships if buyers are unable to secure their own vessels, but failure to unload cargo could create contractual issues for customers.
Oil-producing countries are under pressure to restart exports because storage facilities are nearing capacity. However, shipping companies have remained cautious, citing insufficient security guarantees and difficulties obtaining maritime insurance coverage.
Commodity analysis platform Sparta estimated that there is a 50% probability that maritime traffic will not return to normal levels in the short term. The firm warned that expectations of full shipping flows within one or two weeks are overly optimistic, noting that shipowners and insurance organizations need greater security assurances and that maritime routes must be cleared of potential mines.
Some early increases in traffic are expected as certain operators resume voyages, but analysts caution that a full recovery will be slower. Sparta said that approximately half of the lost supply from the Arabian Gulf could return relatively quickly once ships are available, while restoring the remaining capacity could take months and involve setbacks.
The delay in signing the U.S.-Iran agreement has so far had limited impact on oil prices, with markets continuing to anticipate progress in negotiations and a reopening of the waterway. Both countries have strong incentives to restore access through Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil transit routes.
The United States faces pressure after more than three months of disruption affected its oil reserves, while Iran sees the agreement as an opportunity to ease restrictions on oil exports and secure funds for reconstruction. Control over the strait remains a key strategic advantage for Tehran during negotiations.
The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have said they are capable of returning oil production to pre-conflict levels within two weeks, partly because they have alternative export routes that bypass Hormuz. Other regional producers, including Kuwait and Iraq, lack similar options and were forced to reduce production after storage capacity limits were reached.
Even if diplomatic talks proceed successfully, several obstacles remain before Persian Gulf oil supplies can fully recover. Restarting inactive facilities will require weeks, damaged infrastructure will need repairs, and maritime routes must be cleared before shipping can return to previous levels. Before the disruption, more than 130 vessels passed through the strait each day, a volume that current alternative routes cannot support.
Financial analysts have also warned that the post-conflict reality may not restore previous levels of energy flows. Goldman Sachs estimated that the new normal for Hormuz could involve only 70% of previous supply capacity, while RBC said maritime activity could experience a decline similar to the prolonged reduction seen in the Red Sea after recent security disruptions.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz represents the beginning of a recovery process rather than an immediate return to normal operations, with shipping, insurance and energy markets closely monitoring both security developments and diplomatic negotiations.
