The United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union has failed to deliver several of the economic and social outcomes promised by supporters of Brexit, according to an analysis published by El Pais that examines the country’s performance more than a decade after the decision that reshaped its relationship with the bloc.
The article traces the political path back to 2014, when then-British Prime Minister David Cameron confronted European leaders over the country’s financial contribution to the EU. At the time, the possibility of a referendum on membership was already under discussion, but the consequences of leaving the bloc remained uncertain.
The United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union in 2016, with supporters arguing that independence from EU regulations would boost economic growth, strengthen the pound and create new opportunities through international trade agreements. According to the El Pais analysis, many of those expected gains have not materialized.
Economic performance has remained below projections made during the Brexit campaign. The article cites research from the National Bureau of Economic Research and Stanford University estimating that UK gross domestic product is between 6% and 8% lower than it would have been if the country had remained in the European Union. Since Brexit, the British economy has recorded average annual growth of 1.4%, lower than the average growth rate in the 15 years before the vote.
The Office for Budget Responsibility has also estimated that productivity is around 4% lower than it would have been under continued EU membership. Trade has also declined, with the article citing estimates that foreign commerce is approximately 15% lower than it otherwise could have been.
The expected boost from new trade agreements outside the European Union has also been limited. According to the analysis, the Office for Budget Responsibility found that such agreements have had no significant material impact so far and that any effects would develop gradually.
Brexit has also changed movement between the United Kingdom and the European Union. Citizens traveling between the two areas face new restrictions, including limits on visa-free stays and additional travel authorization requirements for EU visitors. The article notes that these changes have contributed to a decline in the attractiveness of the UK for European students.
Data from the University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory cited by El Pais shows that the number of EU students enrolled in British higher education institutions fell from 138,040 in the 2016-2017 academic year to 75,490 in 2023-2024.
The country’s public healthcare system has also seen declining public satisfaction. The article cites the 2025 British Social Attitudes Survey, which found that only one in four respondents were very or fairly satisfied with the performance of the National Health Service, compared with significantly higher satisfaction levels in 2016.
Immigration, one of the central issues behind the Brexit campaign, has also produced different results from those expected by supporters of leaving the EU. While the number of EU citizens in the UK has declined, arrivals from non-EU countries have increased, according to official data cited in the report.
Politically, the article notes that Brexit-supporting forces have not been weakened. Polling data cited by El Pais shows that Reform UK, the party associated with Brexit campaign figure Nigel Farage, has gained support and emerged as a major force in recent surveys.
While many sectors have faced challenges, the analysis identifies some beneficiaries of Brexit, including Northern Ireland, which has maintained access to both EU and UK goods markets under a unique arrangement. The customs sector has also expanded, with around 10,000 additional customs workers hired to manage new procedures, according to the Institute of Export and International Trade.
The report concludes that while some industries have adapted to the post-Brexit environment, the broader economic and social effects of leaving the European Union continue to shape Britain’s political and economic landscape.
