China has elevated household consumption to the centre of its long-term economic strategy by unveiling its first stand-alone five-year plan dedicated exclusively to boosting consumer spending. The blueprint sets a target of 60 trillion yuan (US$8.85 trillion) in retail sales by 2030, nearly 20% above the projected 2025 level, as Beijing seeks to reinforce domestic demand amid slowing consumption growth.
The plan, released on Monday by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Commerce, marks the first time Chinese authorities have introduced a separate five-year framework focused solely on consumption. In a joint statement, the two agencies said China’s consumer market was entering a critical stage of expansion and quality improvement, adding that a stronger retail sector would become a key driver of national economic growth.
According to the plan, China aims to expand retail sales by 10 trillion yuan between 2025 and 2030. Achieving that objective would require average annual growth of at least 3.66% throughout the country’s 15th Five-Year Plan period covering 2026 to 2030. The initiative represents a shift from the current 14th Five-Year Plan, which treated consumption as one element of broader efforts to expand domestic demand rather than establishing a dedicated roadmap for the retail sector.
Huatai Securities said in a report released on Tuesday that the new framework places greater emphasis on coordination among government ministries while introducing a comprehensive set of medium- and long-term institutional measures designed to support consumption. The firm said the plan reflects a more structured policy approach than previous planning cycles.
The announcement comes as official data indicate slowing consumer activity. Figures published by the National Bureau of Statistics showed retail sales, a key measure of consumption, increased only 1.4% year on year during the January-May period. Wang Peicheng, senior analyst at Orient Futures, said retail sales declined 0.6% year on year in May, indicating weaker consumption momentum. He said the 60 trillion yuan target was intended to stabilise market expectations but added that the growth objective would not be sufficient to support China’s longer-term goal of raising per capita gross domestic product to the level of moderately developed economies by 2035.
The National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to release June retail sales data, along with second-quarter gross domestic product figures and other economic indicators, on Wednesday.
China previously set a retail sales target of 50 trillion yuan for 2025 under the Ministry of Commerce’s earlier five-year planning cycle. That objective was achieved with a compound annual growth rate of about 5%, while official data showed consumption contributed an average of 58.8% to national economic growth during the period.
Under the new strategy, policymakers are placing greater emphasis on expanding service consumption, including spending on restaurants, elderly care, early childhood services, tourism and sports, while continuing to view housing and automobile purchases as important drivers of goods consumption. Wang said service industries, particularly those linked to advanced healthcare and artificial intelligence technologies, continue to offer significant growth potential and could reinforce broader technological development.
Goldman Sachs said in a report released on Tuesday that it remained cautious about the pace of China’s consumption recovery. The investment bank said the new framework could improve the quality of supply and reduce institutional barriers but added that near-term effects would likely remain limited without stronger demand-side stimulus, citing weak labour market conditions, subdued income expectations and property-related wealth pressures.
The government also acknowledged the challenges facing household spending. In their joint statement, the NDRC and the Ministry of Commerce said the consumption sector continues to face constraints that have prevented the country’s domestic demand potential from being fully realised. The guidelines identify stronger employment and higher household incomes as central policy priorities while highlighting the property and capital markets as important channels for increasing household wealth. Yan Yuejin, vice-president of the E-house China Research and Development Institute, said the housing market was referenced four times in the guidelines, including provisions calling for the removal of unnecessary property restrictions, a move he said could provide local governments with greater flexibility in shaping housing policies.
