Sri Lanka could face what former president Ranil Wickremesinghe described as one of the country’s most severe economic battles if it fails to increase its foreign reserves to US$15 billion within the next two years, as the country prepares to resume debt repayments after 2028.
Wickremesinghe issued the warning while attending the launch of “Yudha Dekakata Ura Dee”, a book written by former minister Ranjith Siyambalapitiya, at the Bandaranaike Memorial International Conference Hall in Colombo.
His remarks focused on a question that he said should become central to the country’s economic debate: how Sri Lanka will generate sufficient foreign exchange to meet its obligations once the current period of debt restructuring and international financial support comes to an end.
According to Central Bank projections cited by Wickremesinghe, Sri Lanka’s foreign reserves are expected to reach US$8 billion by the end of this year. But he argued that reserves would need to rise to around US$15 billion by 2028, when the country is expected to resume external debt repayments.
The gap, he said, represents one of the country’s principal economic challenges.
Wickremesinghe said that when his administration left office, inflation had been brought under control and US$6 billion in foreign exchange reserves had been left in the country. With reserves currently expected to rise to US$8 billion by the end of the year, he argued that a further increase would be necessary before debt repayments resume.
In his remarks, however, Wickremesinghe referred at different points to the additional requirement as either US$7 billion or US$6 billion, depending on whether the calculation was made against the current reserve position or the Central Bank’s projected year-end figure.
“The main problem in this country is how we are going to repay the debt,” he said, arguing that the issue required greater attention than other political and constitutional questions.
He recalled the assistance Sri Lanka received during its previous economic crisis, including US$4 billion from India and US$100 million from Bangladesh, as well as support from the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and Japan. That assistance, he said, had helped stabilise the country during the crisis.
But the former president warned that the circumstances facing Sri Lanka after the present phase of international assistance could be different. The agreement with the International Monetary Fund is due to conclude in March 2027, he said, making the question of what comes afterwards a critical one for economic policy.
The central question, in his view, is whether Sri Lanka will continue working with the IMF and what economic programme the government will pursue once the existing agreement ends.
Wickremesinghe also referred to another condition involving approximately US$3 billion in bonds, adding another layer to the financial obligations that the country will have to manage as it moves towards the resumption of debt repayments.
He warned that stepping outside important legal frameworks, including the Economic Transformation Act, could increase the risk of Sri Lanka becoming bankrupt again. He also expressed concern that there had not yet been sufficient discussion of the issue either inside or outside Parliament.
The former president’s warning was framed not simply as a question of accumulating reserves but as a broader challenge of generating the foreign income required to sustain them. He said Sri Lanka would need to expand its sources of foreign earnings rapidly if it was to meet the economic challenge expected in 2028.
His remarks repeatedly returned to the question of preparedness. The immediate improvement in reserves, he suggested, should not be mistaken for the end of the country’s economic difficulties. The period after 2028 would bring a renewed obligation to repay external debt, requiring the country to have sufficient foreign currency available.
He contrasted this challenge with other issues occupying political attention, arguing that constitutional amendments and questions such as whether the retirement age of judges should be extended should not displace attention from the country’s capacity to repay its debts.
“So far, nobody has talked about this either inside Parliament or outside Parliament,” Wickremesinghe said, asking what the country would do when the problem arrived. If Sri Lanka could not meet its obligations, he warned, the country could again become bankrupt.
The former president then drew a striking comparison with the title of the book being launched.
The book, “Yudha Dekakata Ura Dee”, refers to two wars. Wickremesinghe argued that Sri Lanka should now be thinking about a third war — an economic struggle over the country’s ability to meet its future obligations.
“This book has two wars; it is the third war that should be written about,” he said. “Remember, although these two wars are over, another war is coming.”
He cautioned that Sri Lanka would face serious difficulties if it failed to overcome that coming challenge.
The warning comes against the backdrop of an economy that has already endured a severe crisis and subsequent stabilisation efforts. Wickremesinghe’s remarks suggested that the immediate improvement in economic indicators should not be regarded as the conclusion of that process, but rather as part of a longer effort to restore the country’s ability to meet its international financial commitments.
The former president ended his remarks with a characteristic acknowledgement of the nature of his message.
“I have not brought good news,” he said. “Somehow, I always bring bad news.”
For Sri Lanka, however, the substance of his warning was focused on a specific deadline: the return of significant debt repayments after 2028. Whether the country can build the foreign reserves and foreign income required before that point, and what economic programme will follow the end of the current IMF agreement in March 2027, remain the central questions raised by his intervention.
The “third war” Wickremesinghe described is therefore not a military conflict, but a struggle over whether Sri Lanka can sustain its economic recovery while meeting the external obligations that will return in the years ahead.
