The number of visitors arriving in Japan from China fell sharply in November compared with the previous month, reflecting rising political tensions between Beijing and Tokyo, even as annual figures showed modest growth. According to data released on Wednesday by the Japan National Tourism Organization, 562,600 Chinese travellers visited Japan during the month, representing a 21.4 per cent decline from October but a 3 per cent increase compared with November last year.
The figures are the first official snapshot of travel trends since China issued a warning on November 14 advising its citizens not to travel to Japan. The advisory followed comments by Japan’s prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, suggesting that Japan could intervene militarily if China were to use force against Taiwan, escalating diplomatic friction between the two countries.
In the wake of the warning, several Chinese airlines moved to scale back Japan-bound flights, while others offered full refunds or free ticket changes for flights purchased before December 5 with departures scheduled through late March. These measures contributed to the sharp month-on-month decline in arrivals, particularly as November typically marks the start of Japan’s winter tourism season.
Despite the drop, the tourism organization said the year-on-year increase was supported by a higher number of available airline seats compared with the same period last winter. Expanded flight capacity helped cushion the impact of the diplomatic dispute, allowing overall visitor numbers to remain above last year’s level.
Japanese businesses are divided over the economic implications of fewer Chinese tourists. A survey conducted by Teikoku Databank earlier this month found that 42.8 per cent of companies believe the travel warning has had a negative effect on the Japanese economy, while 40.8 per cent reported no impact. A smaller share, 5.6 per cent, said the situation had been beneficial.
Looking ahead, expectations remain mixed. Over the next six months, 36.4 per cent of surveyed companies anticipate a negative impact from reduced Chinese tourism, compared with 35.8 per cent who expect no significant change. The proportion of businesses predicting a positive effect rose to 11.1 per cent, suggesting some see opportunities emerging from shifts in travel patterns.
Transport and warehousing firms reported the highest immediate negative impact, reflecting their dependence on cross-border travel flows. Real estate companies stood out as the sector most concerned about longer-term consequences, particularly in regions reliant on foreign visitors.
The impact has not been limited to mainland China. The tourism organization said visitor numbers from Hong Kong fell 8.6 per cent year on year in November after local authorities issued a similar travel warning. Together, the declines underline how geopolitical tensions are increasingly influencing travel decisions in East Asia, adding uncertainty to Japan’s post-pandemic tourism recovery.
