The Chinese government has instructed the country’s airlines to reduce the number of flights to Japan through March 2026, Bloomberg reported, signaling Beijing is preparing for a prolonged diplomatic dispute with Tokyo. The directive, issued last week, followed comments on Taiwan by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, but preceded recent calls between former U.S. President Donald Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Japan’s new leader.
Airlines have been asked to make reductions “for now,” indicating that the situation could shift depending on diplomatic developments, according to people familiar with the matter who requested anonymity. The end of March coincides with the transition from the global airline industry’s winter to summer schedules.
Travel from China to Japan has already declined after Beijing warned its citizens against traveling abroad. The airline edict ensures the pullback will extend through the Lunar New Year, traditionally a peak period for Chinese tourism spending. Airlines retain discretion over which routes and how many flights to cut, the sources said.
Data from China Trading Desk, a travel market researcher, shows that cancellations by Chinese tourists are already extending into April 2026. “What started as a year-end shock is now bleeding into next year,” said Subramania Bhatt, CEO of China Trading Desk. “Many travelers are no longer treating this as a short-lived blip.”
Scheduled flights from China to Japan in December are down more than 20% from October, with Bhatt expecting more than half of routes to be canceled by year-end. At least 12 routes from Chinese cities including Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Nanjing to popular Japanese destinations such as Nagoya, Fukuoka, and Sapporo have already been axed.
The decline in travel could cost Japan as much as $1.2 billion in visitor spending through the end of 2025. If cancellations persist at the current pace, Bloomberg cited estimates that the cumulative hit could reach $9 billion by the end of 2026. China Eastern Airlines, operating nearly 16,000 flights a year to Japan, is among the most exposed carriers, followed by Air China and China Southern. Airlines have also implemented ad-hoc weekly cuts and downgraded some flights from larger widebody jets to smaller single-aisle planes, AeroRoutes data shows.
The pullback highlights the economic impact of geopolitical tensions in East Asia, as Japan’s tourism sector braces for a significant reduction in one of its largest inbound travel markets.
