China Targets Peak Oil Demand While Expanding Deep Drilling and Pipeline Network

Under the new five-year plan, China aims to achieve domestic oil and gas supply equivalent to 440 million tonnes of oil equivalent by 2030.

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An aerial drone photo taken on June 4, 2024 shows a view of the offshore field of the Shengli Oilfield in Dongying City, east China's Shandong Province. (Xinhua/Fan Changguo)

China has unveiled a new five-year plan for its oil and gas sector that combines a drive to reach peak oil consumption with expanded domestic production, deeper drilling, larger energy reserves and a major extension of the country’s pipeline network, as Beijing seeks to strengthen energy security amid heightened geopolitical risks.

The plan, announced on Monday by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration, sets out targets extending to 2030, including natural gas storage capacity equivalent to more than 13 per cent of national consumption. China also plans to increase the annual handling capacity of its liquefied natural gas terminals to 200 million tonnes and raise overland pipeline import capacity to 114 billion cubic metres of natural gas a year.

The measures come as Beijing seeks to reduce its vulnerability to external energy disruptions, including those associated with geopolitical tensions, the prolonged conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. As the world’s largest importer of fossil fuels, China has increasingly focused on strengthening domestic supply while diversifying imports and expanding strategic reserves.

Under the new five-year plan, China aims to achieve domestic oil and gas supply equivalent to 440 million tonnes of oil equivalent by 2030. It also plans to add 20,000 km of long-distance oil and natural gas pipelines, taking the national network to 220,000 km. The planned network would be more than five times the circumference of the Earth.

At the same time, the plan explicitly calls for China to reach peak oil consumption. Beijing intends to curb oil demand and emissions through greater use of green fuels, improved energy efficiency and electrification, reflecting the effort to balance energy security with a longer-term shift towards alternative sources of energy.

Energy security has long been a strategic priority for Beijing. The new plan continues efforts to reduce exposure to external shocks by increasing domestic production, diversifying imports and strengthening oil and gas reserves, while simultaneously accelerating electrification and the development of alternative energy sources.

The plan calls for stable production from mature oilfields, including Daqing in northeastern Heilongjiang province and Shengli in eastern Shandong province. At the same time, China intends to increase output from newer fields in the Inner Mongolia autonomous region, including Bayan and Jilantai.

A major technological element of the strategy is the development of intelligent drilling rigs capable of reaching depths of 15,000 metres. The automated systems use sensors and digital controls to monitor drilling in real time and allow much of the process to be automated. Their development supports Beijing’s push to explore and produce oil and gas onshore at depths exceeding 10,000 metres.

China is also incorporating carbon management into the plan. It aims to store 10 million tonnes of carbon dioxide annually by 2030 through carbon capture, utilisation and storage, or CCUS. The technologies are designed to capture industrial emissions and store them underground, including by injecting carbon dioxide into oilfields to increase crude production.

The plan further calls for a national oil reserve system combining government stockpiles, mandatory corporate reserves and commercial inventories. The system is intended to provide greater protection against disruptions to supplies.

Exploration will also be expanded in major oil and gas basins, with particular attention to deep and ultra-deep reserves in Xinjiang’s Tarim Basin and southwestern China’s Sichuan Basin.

The new targets build on increased domestic production during the previous five-year plan. China’s crude oil output reached a record 216 million tonnes in 2025, while natural gas production rose by more than a third from 2020. According to a report published by the National Bureau of Statistics in June, China also completed its target of adding 16,500 km of oil and gas pipelines ahead of schedule.

Together, the measures point to a strategy in which China is preparing for peak oil consumption while continuing to invest heavily in domestic production, infrastructure and technological capacity to shield its energy system from external shocks.

Sri Lanka Guardian

The Sri Lanka Guardian is an online web portal founded in August 2007 by a group of concerned Sri Lankan citizens including journalists, activists, academics and retired civil servants. We are independent and non-profit. Email: editor@slguardian.org

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