The Iran war has granted airports in China and India a rare chance: the opportunity to anchor global travel, as reported by the Financial Times. Before the conflict began in February, one in three travellers journeying between Asia and Europe passed through a Middle Eastern airport such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi or Doha.
The broader Asian continent has grown mega hubs in Singapore and Hong Kong — but mainland China and India have so far failed to create their own answers to the Gulf giants. Despite the ceasefire announced this week, travel through the Gulf is likely to remain constrained for the coming months, giving Asia’s airports a generational chance to put themselves on the map, say executives and industry experts.
“India has so far squandered their opportunity to create a global hub,” says Hari Marar, chief executive of Bangalore International Airport. As it watched the rise of the Gulf, the country has been held back by government regulations and the lack of a strong anchor airline. For many years, the largest hub for India has been airports in the Middle Eastern region.
Significant plane orders mean India’s two major airlines — Air India and IndiGo — will triple their fleet size in the coming decade. China and India are already adding significant airport capacity in expectation of a domestic travel boom from newly wealthy middle classes.
Justin Erbacci, who leads global airports body ACI World, believes that rising connectivity within China and India will naturally lead to more passengers connecting through those countries. “Once you have the domestic network, more destinations become viable, and hubs will develop as a result,” he said.
He predicts growth in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, supported by increased “point-to-point” demand across Asia. Early signs are promising: in the four weeks following the outbreak of the Iran war, bookings for business travel transiting through mainland China rose sharply.
Chinese airlines have also expanded flights to Europe and Australasia, strengthening their position. They benefit from the ability to fly over Russia — a route unavailable to many Western carriers — giving them an advantage in time and cost.
However, building a true hub requires more than flight volume. Airports must optimise transfer times, invest in passenger services, and coordinate schedules for seamless connections. Gulf hubs excel in these areas, with infrastructure specifically designed for transit passengers.
China’s airports, while large, are still less attractive as global hubs due to fewer amenities and less efficient transfer systems compared to places like Singapore or Hong Kong.
Even so, improvements are underway. Shanghai is positioning itself as a global transit hub, offering visa-free transit policies and free overnight rest areas for travellers. Increased direct flights to Europe are already boosting traffic.
Established Asian hubs such as Singapore and Hong Kong are also benefiting, adding more flights and serving as refuelling stops for long-haul routes.
Despite these developments, some industry leaders expect limited long-term change. Middle Eastern carriers, which account for a significant share of global international traffic, are likely to regain their dominance once stability returns.
While China and India may capture some additional traffic in the short term, matching the scale and efficiency of Gulf hubs remains a major challenge.
