The European Union faces a pivotal moment as the intensifying rivalry between the United States and China creates a new era of global competition, according to a report led by former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon. The report warns that without significant reforms, the EU risks becoming irrelevant in matters of security, trade, technology, and energy. Drawing on consultations with government, business, and civil leaders, it emphasizes that structural shifts are reshaping nations, markets, and institutions, challenging countries that have historically relied on the U.S. for security while simultaneously expanding trade ties with China.
Blair and Dimon argue that Europe must further integrate to strengthen its defense and economic capabilities. “If it cannot stand on its own against Russia, it will be even less able to manage systemic competition with the U.S. or China,” the report states. It stresses that reform is essential for the EU to maintain relevance in the evolving geopolitical landscape. The report comes at a time when the EU is hosting a summit to discuss funding for Ukraine and its broader role in managing global economic rules, amid mounting pressure from the U.S., including new strategic directives from President Donald Trump.
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has echoed the call for European self-reliance, emphasizing that the bloc must take responsibility for its own security. While Europe’s share of global GDP is declining, the report notes, the U.S. faces similar challenges, and the shifting balance of power is forcing middle powers such as India and the Gulf states to navigate a complex geopolitical environment. The report highlights recent tensions, including U.S. tariffs on India over Russian oil purchases and the UAE strengthening technology ties with the U.S., underscoring the difficult choices nations face between alignment with the U.S. or China.
Describing the emerging global order as a “3D chess board,” the report warns that historical reference points no longer provide adequate guidance. It notes that the U.S. retains enduring power but is constrained by domestic political volatility and high debt, while China’s trajectory will depend on sustaining growth amid demographic and financial pressures. The study situates these shifts within the broader context of geopolitics, artificial intelligence, and political populism, all of which are rapidly transforming global relations.
Produced jointly by JPMorgan Chase and the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, the report is part of a wider effort by Dimon’s firm, which has launched a $1.5 trillion, decade-long plan to support industries critical to U.S. economic security and resilience. Blair, who chairs JPMorgan’s international council, emphasized the strategic importance of preparing for this unprecedented multipolar world, warning that only decisive reforms can ensure Europe’s continued relevance on the global stage.
