France’s government debt is set to reach its highest level in almost 50 years, according to figures released by the French Finance Ministry, with the debt-to-GDP ratio expected to rise to 119.3 per cent in 2026. The statistics agency Insee said such a level of government debt has not been recorded since 1978.
The debt burden is expected to increase further next year. The French government forecasts that the debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 121.7 per cent in 2027, more than twice the 60 per cent ceiling set under European Union rules for the total government debt of member states.
France is already the third-most indebted country in the eurozone, behind only Greece and Italy. The scale of its debt stands in contrast with developments elsewhere in the bloc. Spain’s debt fell below 100 per cent of GDP in July, while Portugal reduced its debt below 90 per cent of GDP in 2025. Germany’s government debt stood at 63.5 per cent of GDP in 2025.
France is also struggling to bring its annual budget deficit within the limits established by EU rules. Member states are expected to keep annual new borrowing below 3 per cent of GDP. France’s budget deficit stood at 5.1 per cent of GDP last year and is forecast by the government to rise to 5.4 per cent this year.
Germany is also currently above the EU target, with a budget deficit of 3.1 per cent, but France’s projected deficit remains substantially higher than the European threshold.
The worsening fiscal position has placed growing pressure on the French government. Earlier this year, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu was forced to abandon all major reforms associated with President Emmanuel Macron, a development that contributed further to the country’s rising debt.
The government is now preparing a major savings programme for 2027, targeting €54 billion in spending reductions in an effort to contain the deficit. Lecornu told Le Figaro that the measures would significantly slow the rapid increase in government spending.
However, the scale of the challenge remains contested within the government itself. French Finance and Economy Minister Roland Lescure has described plans to reduce the annual budget deficit to below 5 per cent of GDP as unrealistic, underscoring the difficulties facing the government as it attempts to stabilise the country’s public finances.
France therefore enters the coming year facing a combination of historically high debt, a deficit above European limits and the need for substantial spending reductions. With the government forecasting that the debt ratio will continue rising in 2027, efforts to contain public borrowing are becoming an increasingly central challenge for French economic policy.
