As Washington and Tehran move toward discussions on a possible agreement to end their conflict, a central question is emerging over who will benefit most from any economic opening: the Iranian public, foreign investors, or the powerful network controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
According to Reuters, the outlines of a potential deal contain a significant challenge for U.S. policymakers and their allies. Measures designed to encourage Iran’s compliance, including sanctions relief and renewed access to international markets, could also strengthen an organization that Washington and several Western governments have designated as a terrorist entity.
For decades, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has expanded beyond its military role to become one of the most influential economic forces inside Iran. Built over years of sanctions and isolation, the organization has developed a broad commercial network extending across industries including oil, construction, shipping, telecommunications, ports, logistics, and infrastructure.
Now, as Iran and the United States prepare for talks that could unlock billions of dollars in economic opportunities, the IRGC is positioned to capture a substantial share of the financial benefits generated by renewed trade, increased oil exports, and foreign investment, Reuters reported, citing four senior Iranian sources familiar with the situation.
The sources described the Guards as uniquely placed to benefit from any economic recovery because of their existing control over major sectors of the Iranian economy. Their influence, however, could also complicate negotiations, as removing broad economic restrictions while maintaining sanctions specifically targeting the IRGC could create legal and political challenges for companies seeking to return to Iran.
The IRGC’s economic expansion began after its creation by Iran’s revolutionary leadership and accelerated under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. While the organization was initially established as a military force to protect the Islamic Republic, it gradually gained influence through regional operations, domestic security activities, and its growing involvement in commercial projects.
Since the conflict began on February 28 with strikes that killed Khamenei, the Guards have expanded their internal influence, helping install his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader, according to Reuters. The IRGC has also signaled support for a potential agreement aimed at ending the war.
One senior Iranian source described the Guards as having emerged as the strongest beneficiaries of the conflict because they played a central role in preserving Iran’s political system while also maintaining the networks needed to operate under sanctions. A spokesperson for the IRGC declined to comment.
The interim agreement announced this week would allow waivers for sanctioned Iranian oil sales, while a broader agreement could potentially remove additional sanctions and provide Iran access to a $300 billion reconstruction fund. Such financial flows would create significant opportunities for companies and institutions already embedded in Iran’s economy.
Although the IRGC does not publicly release financial information, its economic reach is widely considered extensive. Reuters reported that the organization maintains multibillion-dollar trade networks and operates across sectors including oil, shipping, construction, and infrastructure.
A major part of that economic structure is Khatam al-Anbia, the IRGC’s engineering arm, which oversees hundreds of affiliated companies involved in large infrastructure and energy projects. Public records and official statements also link IRGC-affiliated entities to industries including telecommunications, automobile manufacturing, tourism, and logistics.
The organization’s influence could become especially significant if international companies begin returning to Iran. Under Iranian investment rules, foreign companies are generally required to partner with local firms, meaning the large number of IRGC-linked businesses could place them in a position to act as gateways into some of Iran’s most profitable sectors.
That possibility creates uncertainty for Western businesses. Even if companies do not directly cooperate with the IRGC, involvement with affiliated firms could expose them to continued legal risks if sanctions targeting the organization remain in place.
Jeremy Paner, a former Treasury Department sanctions investigator who is now a partner at law firm Hughes Hubbard & Reed, told Reuters that the IRGC’s role in Iran’s economy makes it difficult for companies to avoid potential legal exposure. He said the organization remains deeply connected to sectors such as oil, where renewed foreign activity would likely increase scrutiny.
The risks extend beyond sanctions compliance. U.S. legislation, including the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act passed in 2016, allows victims of terrorism to pursue legal claims against companies accused of supporting organizations designated as terrorist groups. This creates additional challenges for firms considering investment in Iran if IRGC-linked entities remain involved.
Even if a wider agreement is not reached and broader sanctions remain in place, Iranian sources told Reuters that the Guards would still benefit from limited oil export waivers and could maintain significant control over the economy through their experience operating under sanctions.
The IRGC’s economic position grew substantially after international restrictions were imposed over Iran’s nuclear program in the early 2000s. As sanctions limited Iran’s access to traditional markets, the organization developed networks involving intermediaries, shipping channels, and front companies to continue trade and oil exports.
That system became more difficult to sustain after former U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear agreement in 2018 and launched a “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran. Expanded sanctions reduced opportunities for sanctions evasion and increased the cost of maintaining those networks, according to Reuters.
As negotiations continue, the role of the IRGC remains one of the most complicated issues surrounding any potential economic reopening. A deal could bring major financial relief to Iran and reconnect the country with global markets, but the structure of Iran’s economy means the benefits may flow through institutions that have spent decades building influence under sanctions.
