Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva holds a five-percentage-point lead over far-right opposition candidate Flavio Bolsonaro six days before the first round of the presidential election, according to a Quaest voting-intention survey published on Monday. Lula was supported by 39% of respondents, up two percentage points from the previous week, while Bolsonaro stood at 34%. teleSURenglish
The remaining candidates each registered no more than 4% of voting intention. The proportion of undecided voters fell to 5%, while 10% of respondents said they would cast a blank or invalid ballot or abstain. The figures measure voting intention rather than an election result.
The survey also examined a possible second round, which would take place on October 25 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote in the first round. In that scenario, Lula and Bolsonaro were each at 42%, producing what the poll described as a technical tie.
Quaest conducted the survey through 2,400 interviews with voters across Brazil between Thursday and Sunday. The poll, commissioned by newspaper O Globo and television network Globo, has a margin of error of two percentage points.
The survey figures were collected after Lula announced a ban on sports betting and online casinos on September 25, according to the source. The poll did not indicate whether the policy had affected voting intentions.
The first round of voting is scheduled for October 4, when at least 158 million Brazilians are expected to vote for president and 27 regional governors. Voters will also elect members of the Chamber of Deputies and renew two-thirds of the Senate.
The latest figures place Lula ahead of Bolsonaro in the first-round voting intention while showing a different picture in the hypothetical runoff. With both candidates at 42% in the second-round scenario, the two-point margin of error means the poll does not establish a clear difference between them in that matchup.
Lula is seeking another term as leader of the Workers’ Party, while Bolsonaro is identified in the survey as the far-right opposition candidate. The poll comes one week after supporters of Lula held marches, caravans and other events across Brazil in support of his re-election bid.
The election will determine Brazil’s next president as well as representatives at federal and regional levels. The Quaest survey provides a snapshot of voter intentions six days before the first round, with the poll showing Lula at 39%, Bolsonaro at 34%, undecided voters at 5%, and 10% intending to submit a blank or invalid ballot or abstain.
