Oil prices rose sharply on Monday, climbing as much as 1.5 percent, after OPEC+ members reaffirmed their decision to pause production increases in early 2025 and renewed geopolitical tensions involving Venezuela unsettled traders. According to reporting from Reuters, Brent crude’s initial surge later moderated, leaving the benchmark up 0.98 percent at $62.99 a barrel by 0052 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude traded at $59.12, up 57 cents, or 0.99 percent, reflecting a market still sensitive to supply signals.
The decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to maintain a production pause follows an earlier agreement in November aimed at preventing a global supply glut. After meeting on Sunday, the group reiterated its intent to act cautiously and retain the flexibility to continue pausing or even reverse voluntary output adjustments if market conditions deteriorate. Analysts said the reaffirmation came as no surprise, given the industry’s growing concern over excess global supply. Vivek Dhar, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, noted in a client briefing that worries about a swelling glut likely influenced OPEC+ leaders to take a more measured approach.
Market uncertainty grew further after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled possible action against oil-producing Venezuela, including the prospect of closing the country’s airspace. Analysts at ING wrote that rising supply risks for Venezuelan crude were providing additional support for oil prices. Venezuela remains a significant supplier, and any disruption to its export routes could tighten global markets. Trump told reporters he had spoken with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro but offered no details on their discussion, cautioning observers not to read too much into his remarks.
In Europe, geopolitical tensions also drove sentiment. Hopes for a Russia–Ukraine peace deal—which had recently pushed prices lower on expectations that sanctioned Russian crude could return to global markets—faded as new attacks reignited uncertainty. Ukraine’s military said over the weekend that it had targeted a Russian oil refinery and a military aviation plant in the Rostov region. Ukrainian naval drones also struck two sanctioned tankers en route to collect Russian crude from a Black Sea port, raising concerns over further supply disruptions.
Diplomatic efforts continued, however, as Ukrainian and U.S. officials met in Florida on Sunday for discussions about the war. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the talks as “very productive,” while acknowledging that significant work remains to resolve a conflict now entering its third year.
Together, the reaffirmed OPEC+ policy, potential U.S. action against Venezuela, and escalating tensions in Europe contributed to a market environment marked by heightened volatility, as reported by Reuters.
