Oil prices soared on Wednesday amid rising fears of conflict in the Middle East, after the Pentagon authorized the voluntary departure of military dependants from parts of the region and President Donald Trump cast doubt on nuclear talks with Iran.
According to the Financial Times, Brent crude — the global oil benchmark — jumped 5% to hit $70 a barrel, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate reached its highest level since April. The spike came after Trump declared he was “less confident” about securing a nuclear deal with Tehran and confirmed the withdrawal of non-essential US personnel, citing mounting regional danger.
“They’re being moved out because it’s a dangerous place and we’ll see what happens,” Trump told reporters, reiterating that the US would not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons.
The rising tensions follow warnings from both Washington and Israel about potential military action if diplomacy fails. In a stark response, Iran’s defense minister Aziz Nasirzadeh warned that his country would “without hesitation” target American military assets in the region if attacked — remarks that quickly rattled energy markets.
The withdrawal order, approved by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, highlights growing concern within US Central Command (Centcom), which oversees military operations in the Middle East. “The safety and security of our service members and their families remains our highest priority,” said a Pentagon official.
Though it remains unclear what triggered the US decision, the move coincided with a 60-day deadline set by Trump for Iran to agree to a new nuclear deal. While Tehran announced plans for a sixth round of talks on Sunday, neither the US nor Oman — the facilitator — have confirmed participation.
In response to the volatility, the UK’s Royal Navy issued a warning about potential escalations in military activity that could affect maritime security in the region. Meanwhile, the British government said it had no current plans to follow the US lead on military dependants but was monitoring the situation closely.
Despite the price surge, some market observers believe the jump may be an overreaction. Jorge Montepeque of Onyx Capital described the rally as a sign that the oil market was “a bit short and full of angst.”
Indirect US-Iran negotiations have faltered over Iran’s insistence on maintaining domestic uranium enrichment, a sticking point in recent proposals. Tehran has said it will issue a counterproposal but insists it has the right to enrich as part of the non-proliferation treaty.
Trump told The New York Post that he still preferred a diplomatic outcome but acknowledged a deal looked increasingly unlikely. “They can’t have a nuclear weapon, very simple,” he added.
Former CIA analyst Helima Croft, now with RBC Capital Markets, said the US decision to reduce its personnel footprint was “not usually taken lightly” and suggested it followed significant intelligence assessments. “This raises the spectre of a heightened threat environment in the region,” she said.
