Russia remains the world’s dominant supplier of enriched uranium, providing roughly 40% of global supply, leaving Europe and other nations heavily dependent despite efforts to diversify, according to reporting from Oil Price.
The reliance on Russian uranium is becoming increasingly pressing as global demand is projected to rise nearly 75% by 2040. Existing mine production, however, is expected to fall by half, creating a significant supply gap. Countries including the U.S., U.K., and members of the European Union are investing in domestic uranium mining and enrichment, but new projects face high costs, regulatory hurdles, and long lead times.
“Shifting dependence away from Russia has been very difficult, as alternative supplies simply do not exist in the way they do for other energy sources such as oil and gas,” the report noted.
In 2023, Russia supplied 38% of the EU’s enriched uranium and 23% of its raw uranium, with EU spending on Russian nuclear fuel estimated at $1.18 billion in 2024. Several EU countries—Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, and Slovakia—still operate Russian-designed reactors that require Russian fuel, though most have now signed agreements to transition to alternative suppliers, a process expected to take years.
Global uranium demand is expected to reach 86,000 tonnes by 2030 and 150,000 tonnes by 2040, driven by a renewed nuclear expansion, including projects such as small modular reactors (SMRs). Meanwhile, uranium production from existing mines is expected to decline sharply, making it increasingly difficult to meet demand without accelerated investment in new mines and enrichment facilities.
Kazakhstan currently leads uranium production, contributing 40% of global output, while Russia continues to dominate enrichment capacity. Companies like Urenco, a Dutch-British-German consortium, are expanding low-enriched uranium (LEU) production, aiming to increase capacity by 1.8 million Separative Work Units across sites in New Mexico, the Netherlands, Germany, and the U.K.
The U.S. has ramped up domestic uranium mining, increasing output from 22,680 kg in 2023 to 307,082 kg in 2024, and conducting over 1,300 exploration drillings in 2024 to reduce reliance on Russian supply. Under the Biden administration, six companies were selected to secure contracts for LEU development, encouraging new U.S. production.
The U.K. plans to develop Europe’s first high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) facility, with $267.1 million awarded to Urenco to build a plant expected to begin production in 2031.
Industry experts note that while the uranium market is small, it is growing, complex, and expensive to develop. “It’s a limited market, not very big, and it’s very expensive to develop technologies in this market,” said Boris Schucht, CEO of Urenco.
With a nuclear revival underway in several countries, producing enough enriched uranium to fuel new reactors will require significant investment, regulatory coordination, and technological innovation, Oil Price reported.
