The latest data from the Institute for Health Policy’s (IHP) Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) reveals significant changes in presidential election voting intentions among Sri Lankan adults for June. The provisional estimates indicate a rise in support for Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) leader Sajith Premadasa, whose backing has increased to 43%, up by 4 percentage points from May.
Conversely, support for National People’s Power (NPP)/Jathika Jana Balawegaya (JVP) leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake has declined to 30%, down by 6 percentage points compared to the previous month. President Ranil Wickremesinghe has also seen a boost in support, rising to 20%, an increase of 3 percentage points. Meanwhile, a hypothetical candidate from the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) registers at 7%, down by 1 percentage point.
However, the survey highlights increased uncertainty in the estimates for June. The model’s margins of error are significantly higher this month compared to previous months, suggesting increased volatility in voter preferences. As a result, the two leading candidates, Premadasa and Dissanayake, are effectively neck and neck, with their support levels remaining within the margin of error.
The SLOTS survey utilizes a Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) model to generate these estimates. This methodology assesses a broad range of respondent characteristics and adjusts for monthly variations in voter sentiment. The June update is based on data from 18,213 interviews conducted from October 1, 2021, to July 21, 2024, including 446 interviews conducted specifically in June 2024.
The survey employs a combination of random digit dialing and a national panel of respondents to ensure a representative sample. Adjustments are made to reflect national demographics concerning age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, education, geographical location, and past voting behavior in the 2019 presidential and 2020 general elections.
