Toyota’s hydrogen chief has issued a stark warning that hydrogen-powered vehicles could suffer the same fate as electric cars if other countries fail to ramp up investment in the technology. Mitsumasa Yamagata, president of Toyota’s hydrogen arm, stated that China is quickly outpacing other nations in developing infrastructure for hydrogen trucks, driving down fuel costs, and expanding refuelling stations. Unless other countries follow suit, China could dominate global supply chains and exports of hydrogen-powered vehicles.
Yamagata emphasized that China’s hydrogen truck infrastructure is far ahead of the rest of the world, with fuel costs being a third of Japan’s and rapidly growing refuelling networks. “All stakeholders moving at once is the most important thing for bringing the cost of hydrogen down,” he said. “China is the most advanced in the world for hydrogen trucks. Why they’re that advanced is because the Chinese government ordered turning major logistics routes into hydrogen highways.”
Hydrogen fuel cells, which generate electricity through a chemical reaction with oxygen and produce only water vapor as a byproduct, are seen as a promising solution for long-haul transport. Unlike battery-powered electric vehicles, hydrogen-powered vehicles are better suited for commercial applications, as they are lighter and do not require extensive recharging.
Toyota and South Korea’s Hyundai are leading the charge in hydrogen fuel cell technology, despite the rapid growth of battery-electric vehicles, which have somewhat narrowed the market for hydrogen. However, building the necessary infrastructure to support a hydrogen-powered economy, such as refuelling stations and low-cost fuel production, has proven challenging. The future of such projects is uncertain, with costs soaring and subsidies deemed insufficient to support large-scale expansion.
In the U.S., funding for hydrogen projects is at risk under President Donald Trump’s administration, while Japan’s progress with its hydrogen highways and subsidies for fuel imports has been slow. The EU’s goal to produce and import 10 million tonnes of renewable hydrogen by 2030 has been criticized by auditors as “unrealistic.” Even in China, where hydrogen adoption is on the rise, the future of hydrogen in commercial transport is not guaranteed, as battery-electric vehicles continue to grow in popularity.
Despite these challenges, Yamagata remains focused on the potential of hydrogen vehicles, particularly for commercial transport. He pointed out that while battery-powered vehicles are becoming more common, they are pushing energy grids to their limits and are unsuitable for long-distance trucking. “Battery and hydrogen cars are technologies in a transition period,” he said. “Battery-powered vehicles are pushing grids to breaking point and unsuitable for trucking heavy loads across long distances, requiring several decarbonisation solutions.”
According to data from Interact Analysis, China already dominates global sales of hydrogen fuel-cell trucks and buses. In 2024, China sold more hydrogen fuel-cell buses and trucks than the rest of the world combined, with 7,069 units sold. In addition, Chinese state media recently celebrated the launch of the country’s first cross-region hydrogen truck route, spanning 1,150 kilometers between Chongqing and the southern port of Qinzhou.
Yamagata revealed that hydrogen in China is produced at a fraction of the cost compared to Japan, with prices ranging from ¥500 to ¥1,000 per kilogram ($3.50 to $7) versus ¥2,000 in Japan. Part of this price advantage is due to the fact that hydrogen is produced as a byproduct in steelmaking, which has helped reduce the overall cost.
While Yamagata acknowledged China’s lead in the hydrogen market, he stressed that it is not insurmountable—yet urgent action is needed. “We don’t have much time left — it’s important to accelerate quickly,” he warned.
Toyota, the world’s largest automaker by sales, has long been a proponent of hydrogen vehicles, having developed the technology for over 30 years. Since launching its Mirai fuel-cell car in 2014, Toyota has sold 28,000 units. Despite scaling back expectations for hydrogen vehicles in the passenger car market as battery EVs gain momentum, Toyota is betting that hydrogen will prove crucial for the trucking and bus sectors. The company recently unveiled its third-generation hydrogen fuel cell, which lasts as long as a diesel engine and can be installed as a single unit in commercial vehicles, reducing costs.
In China, Toyota is focusing on joint ventures with local companies to secure market share. Last year, it opened a factory in Beijing in collaboration with SinoHytec, with a capacity to produce up to 10,000 fuel-cell systems annually. Yamagata explained that Toyota views China as a “dojo”—a place for refining products in a tough market environment. Once perfected, the technology will be rolled out to other markets, including Japan, Europe, and the U.S.
By honing its hydrogen fuel cell technology in China, Toyota hopes to create competitive products that will meet the demands of global markets. As the race for dominance in hydrogen vehicles heats up, the Japanese automaker is determined to stay in the game—though time is running out to catch up with China’s rapid progress.
