More than 600 vessels remain stuck in the Middle East due to the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, with shipping experts warning that it could take “several weeks” to clear the backlog even if maritime traffic returns to normal following a conditional ceasefire in the US-Israel conflict with Iran. The congestion has emerged after months of escalating tensions that effectively shut down one of the world’s most critical shipping corridors.
According to data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence, hundreds of commercial ships are currently waiting outside the Gulf, unable to move through the narrow waterway that connects the Arabian Gulf with the Arabian Sea. Even under optimistic assumptions in which traffic immediately returns to pre-conflict levels, analysts say it would still take more than ten days simply to move vessels already trapped in the region, with full normalisation likely requiring several weeks.
The Strait, which is only around 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, normally handles a quarter of global seaborne oil shipments along with most liquefied natural gas exports from the Middle East. However, the conflict has severely disrupted these flows, reducing transit volumes by as much as 90 percent compared with normal levels. Shipping remains heavily restricted due to safety concerns, with many operators still deeming the route too dangerous to navigate.
Recent data shows that while there has been a slight increase in movement, with around 75 transits recorded in the busiest week since the conflict began, this remains far below typical activity. In normal conditions, roughly 140 vessels would pass through in a single day. Analysts note that most of the limited current traffic is linked directly to Iranian trade or sanctioned routes, underscoring the ongoing instability in the region.
In one recent case, the Panama-flagged cargo ship Oceana Sky became one of the few non-Iranian vessels to cross the strait under new routing guidance issued by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which advised ships to pass through Iranian waters near Larak Island to avoid potential naval mine risks. The ship’s passage highlights the improvised and increasingly complex navigation conditions facing global shipping operators.
The crisis has also drawn international political attention. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said discussions were underway with international partners, including the United States, on diplomatic and logistical efforts to reopen the route. Meanwhile, warnings from global institutions such as the International Maritime Organisation have stressed that proposals to impose tolls on transiting vessels would set a dangerous precedent and lack any legal basis under international maritime rules.
Economic analysts warn that even if a ceasefire holds, recovery will be slow and uneven. Research from Oxford Economics suggests the strait is likely to remain effectively closed until the end of April, with only partial recovery in the following months before a return to normal shipping levels later in the year. The ongoing backlog, combined with damaged energy infrastructure and elevated insurance risks, is expected to continue disrupting global oil and gas supply chains long after active conflict subsides.
