Farmers across Iowa’s agricultural heartland are bracing for another potential trade war as U.S. President Donald Trump moves to reinstate tariffs on Mexico and Canada, according to a report from the Financial Times (FT). The looming tariffs, coupled with existing levies on Chinese imports, have sparked fears of economic instability in one of America’s most vital farming regions.
For Aaron Lehman, a soybean farmer north of Des Moines, the uncertainty is reminiscent of Trump’s first-term trade battles, when retaliatory tariffs from China led to a steep decline in U.S. agricultural exports. Lehman noted that farmers understand that trading relationships take years to build but can collapse rapidly, warning that the long-term effect could be a loss of trust in the U.S. as a reliable trade partner.
Trump recently imposed a 10 percent tariff on all Chinese imports and announced a 25 percent duty on Mexican and Canadian goods, citing concerns over illegal immigration and drug trafficking. While last-minute negotiations granted the U.S.’s neighbors a 30-day reprieve, many in Iowa’s farm belt worry that the tariffs will eventually return—crippling the state’s trade-dependent economy.
Canada, Mexico, and China collectively account for half of all U.S. agricultural exports, with American farmers selling over $85 billion in crops and livestock to these nations in 2023. A full-scale trade war, experts warn, could further shrink foreign demand for U.S. produce, forcing international buyers to shift permanently to alternative suppliers like Brazil and Argentina. Mark Mueller, a grain farmer from northeast Iowa, lamented that the U.S. has gone from being a seller of choice to a seller of last resort.
Iowa, once a swing state, has solidly backed Trump in three consecutive elections—2016, 2020, and 2024. But while some farmers support his use of tariffs as a negotiating tool, others fear the long-term damage to their industry. Steve Kuiper, a fourth-generation farmer, believes Trump’s strategy is necessary to force trade partners to the table, even though it carries risks. Meanwhile, Rick Juchems, another Iowa farmer, warns that commodity prices are already low, while costs for essentials like fertilizer and equipment are rising. Farm profits have fallen by 23 percent since 2022, with many producers losing $100 per acre.
With spring planting season approaching, the uncertainty has left Iowa’s farmers in a precarious position. Many are holding out hope that negotiations will lead to better trade agreements, but they are also preparing for the worst. Juchems noted that farmers will manage as long as they have clarity, but with conditions changing rapidly, he fears that the situation is becoming a source of international ridicule.
