The number of migrants arriving in Italy has surged nearly 40% this year, challenging Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s reputation for curbing migration. This increase follows initial successes in reducing migrant crossings through agreements with Tunisia and Libya.
After Meloni helped broker deals to halt departures from North Africa, migrant crossings to Italy dropped by 58% last year. However, numbers have rebounded in 2025, reaching 8,232 compared to 5,912 at the same point in 2024. Meanwhile, Frontex, the EU’s border agency, reported a decline in crossings through the Balkans, Spain, and Greece, contributing to an overall 25% drop in unauthorized EU entries. Crossings via the English Channel to the UK also fell by 28%.
The primary driver of Italy’s increase is a 63% rise in crossings from Libya, largely due to an influx of Bangladeshis and Pakistanis who first traveled legally to Libya before paying smugglers for boat passage. More than half of the total arrivals in Italy this year are from these two nationalities.
Despite EU and Italian efforts to fund the Libyan coastguard to block departures, smugglers have adapted, using faster boats with dual engines to evade patrols. Frontex detected nearly 30 such vessels carrying about 1,500 people in January alone, with migrants paying up to €8,000 for passage.
Many Bangladeshis legally enter Libya through labor agreements, often flying into Benghazi, controlled by military leader Khalifa Haftar. While Meloni previously secured Haftar’s cooperation to halt mass departures from eastern Libya, he has not prevented migrants from transiting to western Libyan ports. This has led to tensions with Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, leader of western Libya, who has blamed Haftar for the increase.
