by Our Correspondent in Rome
As the Catholic world prepares to bid farewell to Pope Francis, the question looms large over who will succeed him and guide the future of the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics. With his death marking the end of one of the most polarizing and reform-minded papacies in recent memory, the Vatican is bracing for a conclave that promises to be as ideologically intense as it is geopolitically consequential. The battle to define the next era of the Roman Catholic Church will unfold behind the closed doors of the Sistine Chapel, where 135 cardinals — only about 120 of whom are eligible to vote — will deliberate on a successor who will either build upon or unravel the liberal legacy Francis has left behind.
This is not just a vote for a religious leader; it is a reflection of a divided Church and a mirror of the world’s ideological conflicts. Under Pope Francis, the Church moved into more progressive territory, embracing environmental concerns, taking a softer tone on LGBTQ+ issues, and calling for compassion for migrants and the poor. However, this shift has not been universally welcomed within the Church. Traditionalists believe that the pope’s changes diluted Catholic doctrine, while progressives argue he didn’t go far enough. The next pope, therefore, could either cement Francis’s reforms or push for a return to a more conservative, dogma-driven Vatican.
Among the top contenders is Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican Secretary of State and Francis’s de facto number two. A skilled diplomat with deep experience in international relations, Parolin is viewed as a continuity candidate who would maintain Francis’s course without pushing further left. However, he has come under criticism for his inability to address the Vatican’s financial disarray, and his role in brokering a controversial agreement with China over bishop appointments has raised concerns about external political influence on the Church.
Another prominent name is Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, the Archbishop of Bologna, known for his work with the poor, his open attitude toward LGBTQ+ Catholics, and his efforts to mediate in Ukraine. His track record as a peacebuilder and his embrace of inclusive pastoral care have made him a darling of the Church’s liberal wing. In contrast, the African contingent, which represents a rapidly growing segment of the global Catholic population, is rallying around figures like Cardinal Robert Sarah of Guinea and Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Both men are staunch traditionalists. Sarah is renowned for his defense of priestly celibacy and critiques of Francis’s more liberal decisions, while Ambongo, though active in social justice, has taken a hardline stance against same-sex blessings, calling them “intrinsically evil” and against Africa’s cultural values.
Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, represents a wildcard in the race. With deep roots in the Holy Land and experience navigating complex interfaith dynamics, his leadership style is pragmatic and grounded in real-world conflict zones. His offer to exchange himself for Israeli hostages after the October 7 Hamas attack gained international admiration. Another potential compromise candidate is Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost from the United States. Though not traditionally considered papabile, his managerial experience, decades of missionary work in Peru, and moderate theological stance have drawn interest as a unifying choice in a fractured Church.
The possibility of an Asian pope also lingers with the candidacy of Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines. Often dubbed the “Asian Francis,” Tagle blends charisma, media savvy, and pastoral empathy. He avoids confrontations on sexual morality and focuses instead on social justice and inclusion. His popularity, combined with his Roman curia experience and broad international appeal, makes him a strong candidate. However, critics wonder if he has the political toughness to navigate Vatican power structures. Then there’s Cardinal Jean-Marc Noël Aveline from Marseille, born in Algeria, whose passion for interfaith dialogue and decentralization appeals to some European cardinals seeking a fresh, inclusive voice.
One thing is certain: the next pope will not hail from Sri Lanka. Despite the global south’s increasing importance in the Catholic world, Sri Lanka has yet to produce a cardinal with the stature, influence, or curial presence required to mount a credible papal campaign. While nations like the Philippines and the Congo now boast high-profile contenders, Sri Lanka’s Catholic hierarchy remains relatively peripheral in Vatican politics. Its leaders may have influence locally, but they are not seen as serious contenders for the highest spiritual office on Earth.
The context in which this conclave unfolds is as much political as it is spiritual. Francis was elected before the surge of populism that swept figures like Donald Trump to power and influenced European politics through movements like Brexit. Since then, political winds have shifted in many parts of the world toward conservative ideologies — and some Vatican watchers suggest the conclave could reflect this same conservative reaction. The polarisation of the Church may, in fact, echo the polarisation of global politics. Yet, just as no one predicted the election of Jorge Bergoglio in 2013, the conclave could surprise again.
What unfolds in the Sistine Chapel over the coming weeks will shape not just the future of the Catholic Church, but its relevance in a fast-changing world. As cardinals from across the globe begin arriving in Rome, the days ahead will be filled with solemn rituals and age-old traditions, culminating in the smoke signals that will declare to the world: we have a new pope. But until then, speculation reigns. What is clear, however, is that whoever emerges from that conclave clad in white, it will not be a Sri Lankan — and their path will either entrench or erase the legacy of Pope Francis.
