Iran has increased its stockpile of highly enriched uranium by more than 50%, according to a confidential report from the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, heightening global concerns as diplomatic efforts between Tehran and Washington falter.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report reveals that as of May 17, Iran possesses 408.6kg of uranium enriched to 60% purity — a significant jump of 133.8kg since February. Uranium at this level is just short of the 90% enrichment typically required for nuclear weapons, placing Iran in a unique and alarming category as the only non-nuclear weapons state with such material.
The development comes as indirect talks between Iran and the United States, brokered by Oman and ongoing since April, show little progress. While Tehran insists its enrichment programme is peaceful and non-negotiable, Washington demands a complete halt to uranium enrichment before sanctions can be lifted — a fundamental divide that continues to block any breakthrough.
“This is a matter of serious concern,” the IAEA stated, warning of the increased risk of nuclear proliferation. Analysts echoed those fears, noting that Iran’s current stockpile is sufficient to produce the fissile core for a nuclear weapon in less than two weeks.
Kelsey Davenport, Director for Nonproliferation Policy at the Arms Control Association, cautioned that any punitive response by the IAEA board could backfire. “If the board adopts a resolution, Iran is likely to retaliate, putting at risk the progress Tehran and Washington are making at the negotiating table,” she said. Davenport urged both sides to “exercise restraint” and pursue a comprehensive agreement to address the agency’s concerns.
Meanwhile, the latest diplomatic efforts saw Omani Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad al-Busaidi travel to Tehran to deliver what Iranian officials described as elements of a U.S. proposal. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the country would respond “appropriately,” though provided no timeline or details.
The IAEA report also reiterated long-standing transparency issues with Iran, citing unanswered questions about undeclared nuclear materials found at three sites. Without credible explanations from Tehran, the agency warned, it remains impossible to verify whether the materials have been removed, consumed, or remain outside international safeguards.
Iran’s foreign ministry dismissed the IAEA findings, accusing the U.S. and European powers of pushing a “politically motivated and repetitive narrative.” However, international pressure is mounting, with France, Germany, and the UK warning they may invoke the so-called “snapback” mechanism to reinstate UN sanctions by October if Iran does not return to compliance.
Experts say the next few months will be decisive. Israel has repeatedly hinted at military options if diplomacy fails, and the IAEA’s latest findings may harden positions in Western capitals already skeptical of Tehran’s intentions.
Ali Vaez, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, warned that the situation is approaching a tipping point. “The agency’s reporting confirms Iranian obfuscation over its past undeclared work and escalation in its current nuclear activity,” he said. “Unless meaningful progress is made soon, we risk a collapse in diplomacy — with potentially dire consequences.”
As talks continue in Muscat and Rome, the clock is ticking on efforts to avoid a broader crisis — one that could draw the region back into confrontation and deepen the global nuclear threat.
