The future of the Quad alliance, a strategic four-way partnership between the United States, Japan, India, and Australia aimed at countering China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific, is under significant strain as US President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade and sanctions policies have frayed relations with key partners India and Japan.
In less than 200 days, Trump’s imposition of tariffs and threats of sanctions have jeopardized the fragile cohesion of the coalition. The move to impose a 25 percent “reciprocal tariff” on India, coupled with the threat of an additional 25 percent in secondary sanctions over India’s continued imports of Russian oil, has pushed US-India relations to their lowest point since India’s 1998 nuclear tests. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who initially maintained a pragmatic rapport with Trump, was caught off guard by the tariffs and Washington’s warming ties with India’s rival, Pakistan.
Modi has responded by signaling a renewed push for self-reliance, notably rejecting a US offer to sell F-35 stealth fighters—a major setback for Washington’s ambitions to deepen defense cooperation with India. Historically, India has been spared US sanctions due to its strategic importance in balancing China, but Trump’s hardline approach marks a sharp departure from previous US policy.
Japan, a key US treaty ally and vital pillar of Washington’s regional strategy, has also been targeted by Trump’s sweeping tariffs on steel and automobiles. Despite being one of the largest foreign investors in the US, Tokyo views the tariffs as a betrayal of the long-standing economic partnership and security alliance.
These tensions have tested the political leadership of both Modi and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, whose government has faced criticism for perceived softness toward China. In response to deteriorating ties with Washington, both New Delhi and Tokyo are recalibrating their approaches to Beijing. Modi is preparing for his first visit to China in seven years to attend the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, while economic engagement with China is increasing.
Further signs of discord emerged as India has yet to confirm details of the planned Quad Leaders’ Summit, originally scheduled for next month in New Delhi, fueling speculation about a possible delay or relocation.
China has seized the opportunity created by the Quad’s internal discord, proposing high-level exchanges, easing investment barriers, and offering joint efforts to counter US tariffs. As the top trading partner for both India and Japan, Beijing is leveraging economic ties to weaken US influence.
Despite the challenges, the Quad’s long-term relevance remains intact, rooted in shared concerns over China’s ambitions. Japan and India, in particular, appear committed to maintaining and deepening security cooperation with the US and Australia, even as they cautiously engage Beijing.
Japan has identified China as its “greatest strategic challenge,” strengthening ties with the US on issues related to Taiwan, and maritime disputes in the East and South China Seas. India remains wary of China’s ties with Pakistan, border disputes, and regional influence, while tensions persist over China’s opposition to India’s bid for a permanent UN Security Council seat and India’s hosting of the Dalai Lama.
Public opinion reflects the geopolitical strains: a recent Pew Research Center poll found US favorability in Japan dropped to 55 percent, with only 38 percent expressing confidence in Trump. Meanwhile, a majority of Japanese respondents hold unfavorable views of China.
As the Quad alliance navigates these turbulent waters, its cohesion will depend on the ability of all members to reconcile internal differences and present a united front against Beijing’s growing regional ambitions.
