Around 1.4 million barrels per day of Russian oil — nearly a third of the country’s seaborne export capacity — are currently being held in tankers as sanctions imposed by the United States disrupt global trade flows, according to an analysis by JPMorgan.
In a report published Thursday and cited by Reuters, the bank said unloading of Russian oil cargoes has slowed sharply as the November 21 deadline approaches for companies to wind down dealings with state oil giant Rosneft and private producer Lukoil. The restrictions mark the first direct sanctions against Russia under President Donald Trump’s second term.
“Russia’s oil exports are entering a new phase of disruption as sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil are set to take effect,” JPMorgan said, warning that the measures have prompted the two companies’ biggest buyers — India and China — to slash their December purchases.
The sanctions have already put severe strain on Lukoil, forcing it to announce the sale of foreign assets and disrupting operations at its facilities in Iraq, Finland, and Bulgaria, Reuters reported.
Trading sources told Reuters that while overall Russian exports remain relatively stable for now, cargo discharges have slowed, and the logistics outlook is deteriorating. With the cut-off date for deliveries looming, JPMorgan warned that “unloading cargoes could become significantly more challenging thereafter.”
Traders said that many tankers loading at Russia’s key western ports — Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk — list Port Said or the Suez Canal as their initial destination before continuing on to Asia, primarily India and China. However, the uncertainty surrounding future deliveries has left large volumes unsold.
Analysts expect that much of the stranded oil could eventually make its way to China, though at steep discounts. According to Reuters, Russian crude is already trading in Asian markets at its lowest prices in a year as sanctions squeeze Moscow’s access to buyers and financing.
