Oil prices are poised to extend their decline, with Brent crude potentially sliding to around $50 per barrel by the middle of this year as global supply continues to outpace demand, according to analysts at India’s SBI Research. The outlook underscores growing concerns that the market is entering a prolonged period of weakness driven by production increases and swelling inventories.
In a note carried by Fortune India, SBI Research said oil prices have remained subdued largely due to the OPEC+ decision to raise output. The analysts expect the Indian crude basket to soften in line with international trends, projecting a base case of $50 per barrel, or even lower, by June 2026. Their assessment suggests that current price pressures are not temporary but part of a broader structural imbalance in the market.
SBI Research’s forecast broadly aligns with projections from major Wall Street banks. Goldman Sachs said in November that oil prices are likely to fall further next year amid a large market surplus, with U.S. benchmark WTI crude expected to average $53 per barrel in 2026. The bank estimates that the global oil surplus will average about 2 million barrels per day this year, reinforcing downward pressure on prices.
While Goldman expects oversupply to dominate in the near term, it has also indicated that the current wave of new supply is approaching its end. Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said that 2026 would likely mark the last major supply surge the market needs to absorb, with a potential rebalancing emerging in 2027.
Similarly, the U.S. Energy Information Administration has signaled continued price weakness. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA forecast Brent crude to average $55 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026 and remain near that level for the rest of the year. The agency attributed the outlook to rising global oil production combined with softer demand over the winter, a mix expected to accelerate the buildup of oil inventories.
These forecasts were issued before a dramatic escalation in U.S. actions toward Venezuela, including the reported extraction of President Nicolas Maduro and a tipping point in U.S. pressure on the country, which holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves. Despite the geopolitical shock, oil prices have shown little reaction so far, reflecting uncertainty over Venezuela’s future supply prospects and questions about whether U.S. companies are able or willing to spearhead a meaningful recovery in Venezuelan oil output.
