Boeing has reaffirmed its long-term forecast for global demand for new commercial aircraft, maintaining its projection of more than 43,000 deliveries over the next two decades despite slower passenger traffic growth this year and ongoing supply-chain constraints. The outlook was released on Saturday in England ahead of the Farnborough Airshow and remains largely unchanged from the company’s 2025 market forecast.
The U.S. aircraft manufacturer expects the aviation industry to require 43,625 new jetliners and freighters between 2026 and 2045. The forecast includes 33,545 single-aisle aircraft, 7,715 widebody jets, 930 factory-built freighters and 1,435 regional aircraft. The projection closely mirrors last year’s outlook, underscoring Boeing’s view that long-term demand remains intact despite recent economic and geopolitical pressures.
The forecast comes shortly after European rival Airbus reduced its own 20-year projection by one per cent to 42,060 aircraft, citing the impact of the Iran conflict and rising trade tensions. Boeing, however, maintained that the underlying drivers of aviation demand continue to support sustained market growth.
The company expects global passenger traffic to grow by about 2.3 per cent this year, a sharp slowdown from last year’s 5.3 per cent increase. Boeing forecasts that growth will recover to between six and seven per cent in 2027 before moderating to between five and six per cent in 2028. Boeing Commercial Marketing Vice President Darren Hulst said the current slowdown differs from the prolonged disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, adding that the company expects global passenger traffic to return to its anticipated long-term trajectory by the end of 2028.
Looking beyond the near term, Boeing projects annual passenger traffic growth of four per cent over the next 20 years. Cargo traffic is expected to expand by 3.7 per cent annually, while the global aircraft fleet is forecast to grow by three per cent each year alongside average global economic growth of 2.5 per cent.
Boeing said demand for new aircraft continues to outpace manufacturers’ ability to deliver them. Although passenger traffic has recovered to pre-pandemic levels, aircraft production remains below 2018 output. According to the company, the industry is expected to enter 2026 with a shortage of nearly 2,000 aircraft. Boeing estimates that shortages of single-aisle jets will likely continue until the end of the decade, while supply gaps for widebody aircraft could persist into the early 2030s.
The company expects demand to be divided almost evenly between replacing ageing aircraft and expanding airline fleets. Boeing projects that 21,475 new aircraft will replace older models, while another 22,150 will be added to support growth. Over the same period, the global commercial fleet is expected to expand from approximately 28,000 aircraft in 2025 to about 50,000 by 2045. New-generation aircraft are forecast to increase their share of the global fleet from 32 per cent to 92 per cent.
Regionally, Boeing expects China to account for the largest share of future aircraft deliveries at 21 per cent, followed by Eurasia with 20 per cent. North America and South and Southeast Asia are each projected to receive 19 per cent of deliveries, while the Middle East and Africa are expected to account for 10 per cent, Latin America six per cent, and Oceania and Northeast Asia five per cent.
Boeing said its outlook reflects an aviation market recovering from repeated disruptions while continuing to face manufacturing limitations and fragile supply chains. The company is also dealing with certification delays affecting key aircraft programmes, including the 737 MAX 7, 737 MAX 10 and the 777-9. Hulst said long-term demand remains supported by factors including trade, tourism, migration and the continued expansion of airline networks, stating that the fundamental reasons people travel and goods move have not changed.
