Around 30 prisoners convicted of serious offences in Sweden are preparing to serve their sentences in Estonia, hundreds of kilometres from where they were tried. They will form the first group transferred this month under an agreement allowing Swedish authorities to send up to 600 inmates to the Baltic country. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson described the agreement as “historic” after it was signed last year.
The deal has attracted interest from other European countries struggling with overcrowded prisons, while also provoking criticism from academics and civil society organisations. In Tartu, the small Estonian city that will receive the prisoners, the agreement has prompted protests and raised questions over security, prisoners’ rights and the consequences of separating inmates from their families.
Sweden’s prison population has reached a historic high. The expansion of organised crime and the adoption of tougher criminal policies have contributed to the prison population almost doubling between 2015 and 2025, reaching 11,232 inmates, according to the Council of Europe. More serious offences have also resulted in longer sentences, increasing pressure on the country’s prisons. The Swedish Government has argued that the agreement is urgently needed to ease the “tremendous pressure” on the prison system.
Estonia, by contrast, has almost half of its prison cells vacant and has the second-lowest prison occupancy rate in the European Union, at around 58%. After experiencing a wave of crime in the 1990s, the Baltic country has seen a sustained decline in crime and adopted a less punitive penal model. Earlier this year, it recorded just 1,618 prisoners, the lowest number since it regained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.
The five-year agreement allows Sweden to send up to 300 prisoners in return for an annual payment of €30.6 million. Estonia can accommodate another 300 prisoners, but Sweden must pay €8,500 for each additional inmate. The Swedish Government has acknowledged that sending prisoners abroad is cheaper than keeping them in Swedish prisons, where the cost is around €11,000 per prisoner. Estonia, meanwhile, sees the arrangement as a way to maintain its prison infrastructure while generating income and employment.
The transactional nature of the agreement has raised concerns among critics. Timothy Anderson, a professor of International Relations at the University of Tallinn, said the arrangement could lead to a “commodification of prisoners”, treating them as though they were goods moved from one warehouse to another. A prisoner due to be transferred told Svenska Dagbladet that the move felt like an additional punishment, affecting both him and his children.
Europe has tried similar arrangements before. Belgium agreed in 2010 to send 500 prisoners to the Netherlands to address overcrowding, paying around €30 million annually, a figure that eventually exceeded €40 million as more prisoners were included. Norway later followed, sending 650 prisoners to the Netherlands over three years at a total cost of around €95 million.
Both arrangements faced protests from prisoners’ relatives over difficulties visiting them and concerns about their rights. Belgium eventually suspended its agreement in 2016 after the arrangement came to be viewed as unsustainable and too expensive. Norway decided not to renew its agreement two years later, although its authorities maintained that it had achieved its purpose.
A 2023 study in the Nordic Journal of Criminology concluded that the Belgian and Norwegian experiences were, at best, short-term solutions and had failed to address the underlying causes of prison overcrowding: laws and government policies that fill prisons beyond capacity.
Despite those experiences, Denmark signed an agreement with Kosovo in 2021 to rent 300 prison places for 10 years at an annual cost of €21 million. The transfer of prisoners is expected to begin next year after repeated delays caused by political resistance in Kosovo’s parliament, criticism from international organisations and technical issues. Once operational, prisoners’ relatives will have to travel more than 2,000 kilometres to visit them.
Sweden’s agreement excludes women, minors, gang leaders and prisoners who have been radicalised or accused of terrorism. It does, however, cover inmates convicted of murder, violent robbery, fraud and serious financial crimes. Estonia retains the right to veto prisoners it considers too dangerous. The inmates may be Swedish citizens or foreigners.
The agreement guarantees each prisoner basic items including a bed, chair, table, radio, television, alarm clock, cup, mirror, wardrobe or shelving and a device to regulate natural light. Communications between prisoners and guards will take place in English.
Family contact remains one of the most contentious issues. Prisoners are guaranteed one visit each month lasting between one and two hours, as well as a longer visit of between one and three days every six months within the prison. Critics question whether relatives will have the financial means to travel to Estonia.
Estonian Justice Minister Liisa Pakosta defended the arrangement, saying visitors generally come to see only one in five prisoners and are usually grieving mothers. She also pointed to Tartu’s modern prison facilities, including tablets and video-conferencing capabilities.
John Stauffer, legal director of the Swedish organisation Civil Rights Defenders, warned that removing prisoners from the environment they know could weaken their prospects for rehabilitation and reintegration. He also highlighted the impact on relatives, particularly children, and questioned whether responsibilities and accountability between the two countries were sufficiently clear.
The agreement has also proved controversial in Estonia, where it has become a political issue for right-wing and far-right parties. A survey by public broadcaster ERR found that 54% of Estonians oppose the agreement. The opposition has warned that it could revoke the deal if it wins next March’s general election.
Tartu Mayor Urmas Klaas said security remained the city’s priority but argued that the agreement could bring economic benefits. He said 250 prison employees would be recruited as a result of the deal, benefiting the local labour market and economy.
France and the Netherlands have considered sending prisoners abroad, while similar plans in the United Kingdom have stalled amid criticism and projected costs. Finland also expressed interest in an agreement with Estonia last year, while Belgian media reported in February that its Government was considering a similar arrangement. Estonia denied having contacts with other countries and said it did not currently intend to seek additional prison agreements.
The European Union has declined to take a position, saying individual member states have the final say in managing overcrowded prisons. But Anderson believes the Swedish-Estonian agreement could establish an important precedent. He said he would not be surprised if more such agreements were signed in coming years. Estonia expects nearly 200 Swedish prisoners to have arrived by the end of 2026, with the full capacity of 600 at Tartu expected to be filled next year.
