European Union leaders are preparing for a difficult battle over the bloc’s next long-term budget, with disagreements over spending priorities and fears of electoral gains by eurosceptic parties threatening efforts to reach an agreement before the end of the year.
The 27 member states want to settle the nearly €2 trillion budget for 2028-2034 by Christmas, ahead of a series of national elections that could reshape the political balance within the bloc. The presidential election in France next year is a particular concern, as far-right candidate Marine Le Pen has pledged to reduce the country’s contribution to the EU budget.
Le Pen said on the eve of Thursday’s summit that adopting the budget before next year’s elections would constitute a “democratic scandal”. Her potential victory is weighing on the negotiations, with officials concerned that a new government opposed to the current funding arrangements could complicate efforts to reach a deal.
The budget will determine the EU’s spending priorities across agriculture, defence, economic competitiveness and migration. Leaders must also decide how much funding to allocate to regional development and whether European money should support migrant “return hubs” in Africa, as the bloc seeks to strengthen its ability to compete with the United States and China.
However, the proposed timetable is becoming increasingly uncertain. An earlier draft of the summit conclusions called for an agreement by the end of the year, while a version dated Wednesday referred only to a “timely agreement”. A second EU diplomat warned that if negotiations resumed after France’s presidential election in April and May, the process would restart during the summer and become “an awful exercise”.
Ireland, which holds the rotating EU presidency, has presented a proposal that would reduce the budget by about €140 billion. The plan has failed to satisfy any of the three main groups involved in the negotiations.
Germany leads the so-called “frugals”, including the Netherlands and Sweden, which are demanding cuts amounting to several hundred billion euros. France opposes deep reductions, arguing that Europe needs a larger budget to address its growing challenges. A third group, known as the “Friends of Cohesion”, wants stronger financial support for agriculture and regional development.
France has also insisted that any agreement must include “substantial” new EU-wide taxes. A French official said the country wanted levies on large companies, environmental taxation and tobacco, while Paris and the European Parliament have also backed taxes on digital services, crypto-assets and online gambling.
Despite the divisions, some officials believe a compromise remains possible. Ireland’s Europe minister, Thomas Byrne, said on Tuesday that an agreement by December could be achieved “if compromise can be found”.
European Council President Antonio Costa will lead the negotiations, with an extraordinary meeting scheduled for late November to help move the discussions towards an agreement.
The budget dispute comes as the EU continues to assess the results of its post-pandemic recovery programme, NextGenerationEU, agreed in July 2020 with a total value of €750 billion. Its main component, the Recovery and Resilience Facility, has disbursed €450 billion of its €573 billion allocation, with the European Commission assessing member states’ claims for the remaining funds as the programme approaches its conclusion.
The facility has provided grants and, in some cases, loans through negotiated national plans, with Italy, Spain, Poland, Portugal, France and Romania among the main beneficiaries. In Belgium’s French-speaking community, for example, 149 school sites have been selected for renovation, including the Athénée royal de Ganshoren, whose deteriorating condition previously prompted protests by students, parents and teachers. Much of the region’s school building stock nevertheless remains outdated and energy inefficient.
