China’s trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion in the first 10 months of the year, reaching the milestone faster than ever before as strong exports of technology products, particularly artificial intelligence-related goods, continued to drive the country’s external trade despite growing resistance from major trading partners.
The surplus reached $1.04 trillion between January and October, according to customs data released on Tuesday, compared with the full-year record of $1.2 trillion in 2025, when China first crossed the $1 trillion threshold. The latest figures come amid mounting calls from trading partners for Beijing to strengthen domestic consumption and address growing trade imbalances.
“China remains well on pace for a new record high for the trade surplus by year-end despite a miss in October,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank. However, surplus growth slowed to a six-month low in October as imports rose sharply, falling short of market estimates.
Chinese exports increased by 35.2% in October from a year earlier, exceeding economists’ expectations of 33.5%, although growth was slightly below the 36.3% recorded in September. Imports surged by 41.6%, their strongest annual increase since May 2021, significantly exceeding the 32% growth forecast by analysts polled by Reuters.
The strength of exports has helped Chinese policymakers maintain relatively moderate economic support measures while pursuing an annual growth target of 4.5% to 5%. However, domestic consumption remains weak. Retail sales increased by just 1.1% in September, highlighting the continuing dependence on external demand to sustain economic activity.
Demand for artificial intelligence-related equipment has been a major factor behind the expansion of trade. Imports have also benefited from increased purchases of technology products, critical minerals such as copper and energy supplies, including liquefied natural gas, crude oil and coal, according to Tianchen Xu, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
“Imports were still dominated by AI trade,” Xu said. Imports of high-tech products increased by 72% in value in October from a year earlier, according to CNBC calculations based on official figures. The value of crude oil, liquefied natural gas and coal imports rose by approximately 41%, 50% and 60%, respectively.
However, analysts warned that the export boom could face increasing pressure as global investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure moderates and trade disputes intensify. Nguyen Hoang Nam, a China economist at Capital Economics, said export momentum appeared to have slowed, estimating that exports fell by 2% month on month on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Yuanliu Hu, an analyst at Citi Research, forecast that export growth could slow to 8% in 2027 as favourable base effects diminish and global AI investment moderates. The expiry of the US-China trade truce in January and continuing tensions with the European Union were additional sources of uncertainty. Hu said further EU trade measures targeting China were plausible.
The United States remained a significant market. Chinese exports to the country rose by 32.9% in value in October, while imports increased by nearly 35%, leaving China with a monthly trade surplus of $32.7 billion. Exports to the US were up 12.1% in the first 10 months of the year, partly reflecting a low comparison base after shipments fell by 20% during the same period last year following sharp tariff increases.
Washington and Beijing agreed in September to extend their broader trade truce by two months, until January. The arrangements also included export-control waivers covering certain critical minerals and reciprocal special port fees for each other’s vessels. Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump are scheduled to meet for a third time this year at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders’ summit in Shenzhen next week.
Trade tensions with Europe have also intensified. China’s exports to the European Union increased by 24.4% in October, while imports from the bloc fell by more than 4%, expanding China’s trade surplus with the EU to $33.4 billion. An agreement reached last month to limit imports of Chinese hybrid vehicles into the European market is due to take effect on 1 December. However, the annual import cap of 350,000 vehicles remains above the 300,000 hybrids China exported to Europe last year, according to Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
