Africa could add as much as one trillion dollars to its economy within the next decade if artificial intelligence is deployed at scale and in an inclusive manner, according to a detailed new report by the African Development Bank. The study presents AI not simply as a new technology, but as a structural economic lever capable of transforming productivity, employment, and public revenues across the continent if the right foundations are built in time.
The report projects that, under a baseline scenario, Africa’s economy would reach about $4.23 trillion by 2035. With accelerated and coordinated AI adoption, that figure could rise to approximately $5.23 trillion, representing a $1 trillion uplift. This gain, equivalent to nearly one-third of Africa’s current GDP, would be driven largely by efficiency and productivity improvements rather than population growth. The economic impact would extend beyond output, with AI expected to generate between 35 and 40 million net new digital and digitally enabled jobs and deliver an estimated $150 billion in additional annual tax revenues by 2035.
Africa’s demographic profile is central to this opportunity. Over the next decade, more than 300 million people are expected to enter working age, accounting for the majority of global growth in the labour force. At the same time, the continent’s digital capacity is expanding through mobile connectivity, cloud adoption, and data generation across key sectors. The report argues that AI can act as a force multiplier, amplifying human labour rather than replacing it, particularly in economies where informal work dominates and productivity remains low.
The potential gains from AI will not be evenly distributed. Instead, they are expected to concentrate in five high-impact sectors that combine economic weight, readiness to adopt AI, and strong links to inclusive development. Agriculture and food systems are projected to deliver the largest gains, estimated at around $200 billion, as AI tools improve yields, reduce post-harvest losses, and strengthen market access. Wholesale and retail trade could contribute about $140 billion through better demand forecasting, logistics optimisation, and expanded access to working capital for informal merchants. Manufacturing and Industry 4.0 are expected to add roughly $90 billion by improving factory efficiency, maintenance, and quality control, while finance and financial inclusion could generate about $80 billion by extending credit, strengthening fraud detection, and lowering the cost of financial services. Health and life sciences round out the top five, with an estimated $70 billion in gains from AI-supported diagnostics, supply chain forecasting, and clinical decision support.
Together, these five sectors are projected to account for 58 percent of the total AI-driven economic uplift, or about $580 billion by 2035. Their importance lies not only in their size but also in their social reach. They employ tens of millions of people, many of them women and informal workers, meaning productivity gains can translate quickly into higher incomes, better services, and greater economic resilience. The report also highlights spillover effects, noting that AI adoption in these sectors stimulates demand for energy, transport, education, and public digital services, spreading benefits across the wider economy.
Realising this potential depends on progress across five tightly connected enablers: data, compute, skills, trust, and capital. The report finds that Africa currently lags global peers across all five, with particularly wide gaps in access to computing infrastructure and in governance frameworks. Data remains fragmented and often inaccessible, while limited and expensive GPU-powered computing constrains innovation and scale. Skills shortages are acute, with relatively few AI-capable professionals, and many countries lack clear rules to guide the responsible use of AI.
To close these gaps, the report outlines concrete targets for the next five years. These include building interoperable, high-quality data systems, expanding affordable access to computing power through shared regional infrastructure, training millions of workers in AI-relevant skills, and establishing clear governance frameworks to build public trust. Adequate capital is also critical, with the report calling for significant blended finance to de-risk infrastructure investment and help AI solutions move from pilot stages to widespread deployment.
The study stresses that Africa’s countries are starting from very different positions. Larger economies with more developed digital ecosystems are already piloting AI in areas such as banking, logistics, and healthcare, while many smaller or lower-income countries are still focused on basic digital foundations. Bridging these differences through regional cooperation, shared infrastructure, and harmonised standards is presented as essential to avoiding a fragmented, two-speed AI transition.
To guide action, the report proposes a three-phase roadmap. The initial phase focuses on policy frameworks, early pilots, and foundational investments between 2025 and 2027. This is followed by a consolidation phase from 2028 to 2031, aimed at scaling skills, capital, and regional infrastructure. The final phase, from 2032 to 2035, seeks to embed AI across sectors and regions, fully activating productivity gains. The report warns that delays in the early years could permanently reduce Africa’s share of global AI-driven growth.
