African nations are now sending more money to China in debt repayments than they receive in new loans, marking a dramatic reversal in Beijing’s role as a leading financier to the developing world. The shift, outlined in a new analysis by ONE Data, underscores how a decade-long lending boom has given way to a period dominated by debt servicing, reshaping development finance across low- and middle-income countries.
The inaugural report by the ONE Data initiative found that Chinese lending to poorer nations has fallen sharply over the past decade, even as repayments on earlier loans have continued to rise. As a result, many countries — particularly in Africa — have moved from being net recipients of Chinese capital to net payers, transferring more funds back to China than they receive in fresh financing from the world’s second-largest economy.
This reversal has coincided with a surge in the role of multilateral institutions, which have emerged as the primary source of net development finance once debt-service outflows are taken into account. According to the analysis, multilateral lenders increased their net financing by 124 percent over the past decade and now account for 56 percent of net flows, providing an estimated $379 billion between 2020 and 2024.
David McNair, executive director at ONE Data, said the core driver of the shift was the mismatch between shrinking new lending and the ongoing obligation to service past debts. He explained that while China’s loan disbursements have slowed, repayments on earlier financing continue to flow outward, creating a net drain for recipient countries.
Africa has experienced the most pronounced impact of this transition. The continent moved from receiving $30 billion in net inflows from China to paying out $22 billion, representing a $52 billion swing. During the 2015–19 period, African economies recorded significant inflows, but in the most recent data covering 2020–24, those inflows had turned decisively into outflows.
The report cautioned that the data does not yet reflect further reductions that took effect in 2025. The closure of the U.S. Agency for International Development last year, combined with declining allocations from other developed countries, has already weighed heavily on developing economies, particularly in Africa. McNair said that once 2025 figures become available, they are likely to show a sharp drop in Official Development Assistance, intensifying the pressure on public finances.
He described the trend as a net negative for African nations, many of which are struggling to fund public services and long-term investment amid tightening external finance. At the same time, he suggested that reduced reliance on foreign lending could encourage greater domestic accountability, as governments are forced to depend more heavily on internal revenue sources.
Beyond China, the report highlighted a broader decline in bilateral finance flows and private external debt, trends that are expected to worsen as aid cuts take effect from 2025 onward. Together, these shifts point to a profound reordering of the global development finance landscape, one that leaves African economies navigating a more constrained and uncertain funding environment.
