Former US Defense Secretary Mark Esper has warned that the United States will not achieve its objectives in the conflict with Iran through airstrikes alone, arguing that a sustained military campaign is unlikely to change Tehran’s position. Speaking to the Financial Times, Esper said the Trump administration should instead intensify economic pressure on Iran to force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and push Tehran toward a negotiated settlement.
His remarks come as the United States continues military strikes against Iran and President Donald Trump has said attacks will increase in the coming weeks in an effort to compel the Iranian government to reach an agreement. According to the Financial Times, Esper said he was not confident that expanding the bombing campaign would significantly alter Iran’s determination to maintain control over the strategic waterway.
“I’m not confident that if we picked up the bombing the way we did months ago and sustained it for a period of time, that that would have a big change,” Esper told the Financial Times.
Trump recently declared a short-lived ceasefire with Iran to be over after accusing Tehran of violating a memorandum of understanding that was intended to allow free maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz while negotiations continued. The renewed fighting has raised concerns about broader instability in the Middle East and its potential impact on global energy markets.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important maritime trade routes, carrying approximately 20 percent of global oil shipments. According to the Financial Times, vessels moved freely through the waterway before the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran. Tehran subsequently restricted traffic through the strait, and shipping activity remains significantly below pre-conflict levels.
Esper said during a panel discussion in Aspen that the United States should pursue a strategy of comprehensive economic pressure rather than relying primarily on military action. Speaking to the Financial Times, he said policymakers face two options: a full military assault or economic measures designed to weaken Iran’s ability to sustain its position. He added that such an approach would require time, patience, discipline and broad international support, while acknowledging it would likely result in higher fuel prices in the short term.
According to the Financial Times, Brent crude oil prices have risen by 16 percent since the beginning of July to about $85 per barrel as the conflict has intensified. The publication reported that oil industry executives and analysts have warned global crude supplies are already under significant pressure and that a prolonged disruption of the Strait of Hormuz could push prices above $100 per barrel.
The Financial Times also reported that US government energy data released on Wednesday showed domestic crude oil inventories declined again last week, leaving stockpiles at their lowest level since 1984. Rising gasoline prices have renewed concerns about inflation despite easing price growth in June.
Esper also cautioned that a prolonged conflict could place additional strain on the US military by reducing munitions stockpiles and affecting overall defense readiness. He told the Financial Times that his principal long-term concern remains China’s growing strategic challenge, questioning the impact of continued military spending on the United States’ preparedness to respond to other global threats.
US military analysts cited by the Financial Times said the Department of Defense has already expended tens of billions of dollars and used munitions accumulated over several years during a conflict that has shown little indication of nearing resolution.
Esper said he would judge the success of the administration’s strategy using two measures: the restoration of unrestricted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the achievement of a nuclear agreement with Iran that is at least as strong as, and potentially stronger than, the agreement negotiated during former President Barack Obama’s administration before it was withdrawn by Trump.
Former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who appeared alongside Esper during the Aspen panel discussion, also supported increasing economic pressure on Iran. According to the Financial Times, Rice said sustained economic pressure could further weaken the Iranian economy while internal divisions within the country’s leadership continued to develop.:::
