China is poised to tighten its economic hold on Africa following the expiration of the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) on September 30, a move that ends 25 years of preferential trade access for sub-Saharan exporters. Analysts say Beijing is moving quickly to fill the vacuum left by Washington, expanding its role from trade and infrastructure to high-tech development across the continent
AGOA, first enacted during the Clinton administration, had allowed eligible African nations to export thousands of products to the U.S. tariff-free. With its expiry, African exporters—particularly in agriculture, textiles, and light manufacturing—face the loss of critical access to the U.S. market. According to a United Nations warning issued on October 1, nine African countries could now face average U.S. tariffs above 15%, with rates doubling for some sectors in Lesotho, Kenya, Cabo Verde, Madagascar, and Tanzania. South Africa, meanwhile, is bracing for reciprocal duties of around 30%.
While the U.S. grapples with the fallout of the lapsed trade pact, China is seizing the opportunity to strengthen its already dominant position. Beijing surpassed Washington as Africa’s top trading partner in 2009 and has maintained that lead for 16 consecutive years. In 2024, China-Africa bilateral trade reached a record $295.6 billion, up 4.8% from the previous year, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce. Imports from Africa totaled $116.8 billion, while exports hit $178.8 billion. Roughly one-fifth of sub-Saharan Africa’s exports now flow to China.
Experts told the South China Morning Post that AGOA’s collapse “creates fertile ground” for Beijing to deepen its foothold on the continent. Unlike Washington, which tends to focus on resource-driven or strategic partnerships, China’s approach is seen as more comprehensive and pragmatic — addressing a broader spectrum of Africa’s economic and developmental needs.
Beijing has also advanced trade facilitation policies, including a 2024 pledge of zero tariffs on imports from Africa’s least-developed diplomatic partners. Key cooperation frameworks, such as the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) and BRICS, have further institutionalized the relationship.
Beyond trade and infrastructure, China is increasingly driving Africa’s digital transformation — investing in data centers, 5G networks, and cloud computing across the region. These high-tech collaborations align with Beijing’s broader goal of positioning itself as the chief architect of Africa’s future growth at a time when U.S. engagement appears to be waning.
As one African trade official put it, “While Washington debates renewal, Beijing is already signing new deals.”
