The world’s maritime transport sector, which carries more than 80 percent of global trade, is facing mounting pressures as growth slows, freight rates remain volatile, and geopolitical tensions reshape shipping routes. According to the Review of Maritime Transport 2025, published by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), global maritime trade is expected to expand by only 0.5 percent in 2025, down from 2.2 percent in 2024.
The slowdown reflects a combination of fragile demand, shifting trade patterns and costly rerouting of vessels around conflict zones. Shipping traffic through the Suez Canal remains 70 percent below 2023 levels, while detours around the Cape of Good Hope have pushed ton-miles – a measure of the distance cargo travels – to a record 6 percent growth in 2024, nearly triple the pace of trade volumes. The Strait of Hormuz, through which a third of seaborne oil passes, has also been flagged as a risk point for disruption.
Energy shipments highlight the complexity of the transition. Coal volumes rose despite their longer-term decline, oil flows remained flat but took longer routes, and liquefied gas shipments increased. At the same time, demand for critical minerals such as copper, bauxite, manganese and nickel – essential for renewable energy and digital industries – has intensified, adding new layers of competition and logistical strain.
Freight rates have become increasingly volatile, creating uncertainty for traders and policymakers. Container shipping saw spot and charter rates spike to levels close to the COVID-19 highs in mid-2024, before moderating but staying well above pre-crisis averages. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index averaged 2,496 points in 2024, 149 percent higher than in 2023, while spot rates in July reached 3,600 dollars per container. Bulk and tanker shipping followed similar patterns, surging on demand and disruption in 2024 before partially easing in 2025.
Higher transport costs are expected to hit developing economies the hardest, particularly small island states and least developed countries that depend heavily on maritime imports. Longer voyages are also increasing carbon emissions, which rose by 5 percent in 2024. With only 8 percent of the world’s fleet prepared to run on alternative fuels, UNCTAD warns that the path to decarbonization will require massive investment in fleet renewal, fuel systems and port infrastructure.
The International Maritime Organization is due to consider a Net-Zero Framework in October 2025, which would set the sector on a path to climate neutrality by 2050 through a global fuel standard and carbon pricing. Revenues from such measures could be directed to support a just transition, especially in vulnerable economies.
UNCTAD stresses that the sector’s many overlapping transitions – from decarbonization and digitalization to shifting trade policies and geopolitical risks – will require coordinated and inclusive management. It calls for stabilizing trade rules, scaling up investment in resilient and sustainable infrastructure, accelerating digital adoption while addressing cybersecurity threats, and protecting vulnerable economies from disproportionate burdens.
The report concludes that maritime transport has faced crises before, but rarely so many at once. Whether the coming years bring a managed and sustainable adaptation, or a chaotic and divisive adjustment, will depend on choices made by governments, industry and the global community.
