Vincent Clerc, the CEO of Danish shipping giant AP Møller-Maersk, has predicted that tariffs will not significantly impact global trade in the near future. Speaking to the Financial Times, Clerc explained that while the threat of tariffs looms, he believes the true determinant of trade flows lies more in consumer purchasing power than in tariff policies themselves.
Maersk, the world’s second-largest container shipping company, is closely watched for insights on global trade trends. Clerc expects a 4% growth in demand for shipping services in 2025, despite geopolitical uncertainties. He emphasized that while US tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, and potential tariffs on the EU are in the spotlight, the long-term effects remain uncertain until their impact on consumer wallets can be assessed. “As long as tariffs are not implemented, it’s premature to see it as a major factor,” he stated.
The CEO added that tariffs are just one component of a much broader economic landscape that includes factors like inflation, energy prices, and interest rates—all of which play a role in shaping consumer sentiment.
Maersk’s unique position in the shipping world makes it an important barometer for global trade. The company transports about one-fifth of all seaborne freight, offering a clear window into trade dynamics. Despite challenges from increasing supply, with many shipping companies ordering new vessels, Maersk reported a substantial rise in operating profits. In 2024, its operating profit surged to $6.5 billion, driven in part by high freight rates caused by regional instability in the Red Sea. However, the company has tempered its outlook for 2025, forecasting profits between zero and $3 billion as the influx of new vessels leads to downward pressure on freight prices.
Clerc attributed this lowered profit forecast not to a drop in demand but to an adjustment in supply, with more vessels entering the market likely pushing prices lower. “The market is normalizing,” he noted. “Demand remains strong, but the supply side is adjusting.”
While the company faces threats from various quarters, including President Donald Trump’s vague tariff threats towards Denmark, Clerc stressed that it is still too early to form a firm opinion on how these geopolitical issues might evolve. With Maersk playing a critical role in global trade, the shipping giant’s forecasts will continue to be closely watched as a bellwether of global economic trends.
