Refined fuel exports from Russia have fallen to levels not seen since the start of the war, as a combination of refinery outages and Western sanctions disrupt the country’s energy trade. According to figures compiled by Bloomberg from Vortexa Ltd., seaborne oil product shipments averaged just 1.89 million barrels a day in the first 26 days of October, marking the lowest total since at least 2022. While diesel exports inched slightly higher, weak naphtha and fuel oil loadings, particularly from Baltic ports following attacks on the Ust-Luga export hub, dragged overall flows down. Adverse weather conditions in the region may have further complicated port operations.
The decline represents a setback for Moscow’s efforts to maintain stable energy revenues as Ukrainian drone strikes and escalating sanctions hamper financing and transportation of oil. A new round of restrictions targeting major Russian oil companies Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC has added uncertainty, forcing traders to carefully plan payment routes and voyage schedules ahead of a looming U.S. sanctions deadline on November 21.
Diesel exports, mostly destined for nearby markets such as Turkey and Africa, remain relatively stable. In contrast, naphtha and fuel oil shipments, particularly those bound for Asia, face greater vulnerability to delays due to sanctions and long transit distances. Since Russia no longer releases official production figures, traders rely on seaborne shipment data to estimate output. Crude shipments have also declined from recent peaks, with fewer vessels departing from the Baltic in recent weeks.
Detailed shipment data for October shows diesel and gasoil exports increased slightly by 2% to around 740,000 barrels a day, supported by higher Black Sea flows. Naphtha exports fell 3% to 317,000 barrels a day, constrained by the Ust-Luga disruptions. Fuel oil shipments dropped 10% to 710,000 barrels a day, the lowest in three months, while refinery feedstock flows like vacuum gasoil rose 6% to about 70,000 barrels a day. Small volumes of gasoline and blending components, about 13,000 barrels a day, were recorded, and jet fuel flows increased to 44,000 barrels a day. Analysts expect cargo volumes and destinations to be updated as additional shipments are observed throughout the month.
