According to a report by the Financial Times, Vitol, the world’s largest independent energy trader, forecasts that global oil demand will remain steady until at least 2040. The company anticipates that demand will peak at nearly 110 million barrels per day (b/d) by the end of this decade, before declining to approximately 105 million b/d by 2040. This projection suggests that economies may continue to rely on petroleum longer than some analysts have predicted.
Vitol’s outlook contrasts with that of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which projects oil demand to peak at 105.6 million b/d in 2029. Similarly, BP’s recent energy outlook indicates a plateau at the end of this decade, followed by a decrease to about 91.4 million b/d by 2040. These varying forecasts underscore the uncertainties in predicting long-term oil consumption, especially with the evolving adoption of technologies like electric vehicles and sustainable aviation fuels.
Despite anticipated declines in petrol consumption—projected to drop by 4.5 million b/d by 2040, particularly in regions like China due to the rise of electric vehicles—Vitol expects these reductions to be offset by increased demand for petrochemicals and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). The company predicts that oil demand from the petrochemical sector will grow by 6 million b/d by 2040, accounting for a fifth of total oil consumption. Additionally, LPG usage is expected to rise by 1.7 million b/d as more households in developing countries transition from solid fuels to bottled gas.
Vitol’s optimistic perspective on sustained oil demand aligns with its recent strategic investments, including the acquisition of the largest refinery in the Mediterranean. This approach has contributed to significant profitability, with net profits of $15 billion in 2022 and $13 billion in 2023, as reported by the Financial Times.
