Conflict and instability are plunging 39 vulnerable economies deeper into poverty and hunger, posing a growing threat to global development efforts, according to a sweeping new report from the World Bank. The institution’s first comprehensive post-COVID-19 assessment paints a stark picture of stagnation, suffering, and mounting challenges across regions torn by violence and weak governance.
The report reveals that these conflict-affected economies are lagging dramatically behind the rest of the developing world. While per capita GDP in other developing countries has grown by 2.9% annually since 2020, it has shrunk by an average of 1.8% each year in fragile and conflict-affected areas. Extreme poverty is skyrocketing: 421 million people now live on less than $3 a day in these economies—more than the rest of the world combined. That number is expected to climb to 435 million by 2030, accounting for nearly 60% of the world’s extreme poor.
“For the last three years, the world’s attention has been on the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and this focus has now intensified,” said Indermit Gill, Chief Economist of the World Bank Group. “Yet more than 70% of people suffering from conflict and instability are Africans. Untreated, these conditions become chronic.”
The analysis finds that half of the economies currently afflicted by conflict or instability have remained in that condition for 15 years or longer. Of the 39 identified economies, 21 are currently in active conflict.
The development gap is staggering. The average GDP per capita in conflict-affected economies has stagnated at around $1,500 since 2010, while in other developing nations, it has more than doubled to $6,900. Meanwhile, job creation has failed to keep pace with population growth—only half of the 270 million working-age individuals in these countries were employed in 2022.
“Economic stagnation—rather than growth—has been the norm in these economies for over a decade and a half,” said M. Ayhan Kose, Deputy Chief Economist of the World Bank Group. “The global community must pay greater attention. With targeted policies and stronger international support, policymakers can prevent conflict, strengthen governance, and accelerate development.”
The report also highlights the deep human cost. Life expectancy in conflict-affected economies is just 64 years—seven years lower than in other developing countries. Infant mortality rates are more than double, and food insecurity affects 18% of the population—eighteen times higher than elsewhere. Educational outcomes are grim: 90% of school-aged children fail to meet minimum reading standards.
The World Bank stresses that early intervention and preventive measures are far more effective and less costly than post-conflict responses. It urges investment in conflict-warning systems and efforts to strengthen fragile state institutions to improve governance, uphold justice, and spur sustainable economic progress.
Yet the report also points to untapped potential. Conflict-affected economies are resource-rich, with natural resource rents accounting for 13% of their GDP—three times that of other developing economies. Nations like the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe possess minerals essential to the global green energy transition.
Additionally, these economies have a young and growing population. By 2055, nearly two-thirds of their population will be of working age—the highest share globally. To unlock this “demographic dividend,” the report calls for expanded investments in education, healthcare, infrastructure, and private sector development.
The World Bank concludes that reversing the downward spiral of conflict-afflicted economies is difficult—but possible. The stakes are global, as “misery on this scale is inevitably contagious.”
